Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1676.2%
Neutral419.0%
Bearish14.8%
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · RKLB · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Rocket Lab: Demand Holds, but Neutron and Cash Burn Remain Key Tests
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: launch demand, a large backlog, defense programs, and new products provide potential growth support, while Neutron execution, cash burn, and acquisition integration are the main tests of that case.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$30.43B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $-0.10
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $121.5M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-11.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-11.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+44.5%
Up to 20 sessions
RKLBSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about RKLB FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove RKLB's -11.2% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in RKLB's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for RKLB after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis adds Q1 revenue growth, five completed Electron missions, eight newly booked missions, a Neutron NSSL selection, the planned Mynaric acquisition, and new STARRAY and Frontier products. The central risks remain Neutron timing, rising investment, cash burn, and execution.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained. Q2 revenue guidance was $130–$140 million, with higher margins and continued cash burn described in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue was described as $122.6 million, up 32% year over year, near the top of prior guidance.
- Management highlighted robust launch demand, five Electron missions completed, eight new missions booked, and a 20-plus launch goal for 2025.
- The analysis points to more than $1 billion of space-systems backlog and new products, while Neutron investment and cash burn remain material constraints.
Management priorities
- Advance Neutron toward a first launch in the second half of 2025.
- Increase Electron cadence and pursue defense and government launch programs.
- Integrate Mynaric technology and expand satellite communications, solar-array, and European offerings.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$50.84Current
$4.5Low
$81.3Average
$135High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| BTIG | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $120 | $55.25 | +136.0% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $59.18 | +96.7% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $68.4 | +67.2% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Brian Gesuale | $80 | $61.96 | +57.4% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $62.54 | +63.3% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $122 | $78.85 | +140.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $80.04 | +116.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $63.91 | +110.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $83 | $76.2 | +63.3% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $130 | $98.01 | +155.7% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Jeff Van Rhee | $120 | $98.1 | +136.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $135 | $102.39 | +165.5% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $105.05 | +106.5% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $132 | $114.7 | +159.6% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $116.16 | +136.0% | May 12, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $78.58 | +92.8% | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $87.75 | +106.5% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $82.93 | +96.7% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $85 | $68.37 | +67.2% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Anthony Valentini | $69 | $96.3 | +35.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $105 | $90.76 | +106.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $90 | $77.55 | +77.0% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $70.52 | +67.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $63 | $54.98 | +23.9% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $75 | $51.9 | +47.5% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $75 | $51.9 | +47.5% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $67 | +47.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $83 | $69.27 | +63.3% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $35 | $42.34 | -31.2% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $31 | $27.95 | -39.0% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $12 | $10.91 | -76.4% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $11 | $8.69 | -78.4% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $6 | $5.65 | -88.2% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $4.5 | $4.56 | -91.1% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $9 | $3.76 | -82.3% | May 7, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Jason Gursky | $6 | $4.66 | -88.2% | Feb 12, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $8 | $4.92 | -84.3% | Jan 17, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $10 | $4.3 | -80.3% | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $5.36 | -76.4% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $5.63 | -80.3% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Sam Boughedda | $8 | $5.52 | -84.3% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $5.99 | -70.5% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $6.94 | -70.5% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $5 | $4.2 | -90.2% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $5.66 | -72.5% | May 17, 2022 |
Track every rating change on RKLB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHeadquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets.…
Historical context
All RKLB earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | -2.0% | J.B. Hunt: Strong demand, but margin repair remains central |
| FAST Fastenal Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.3% | +1.1% | Fastenal Q3: Share Gains and Digital Adoption Lift Growth |
Latest beats and misses
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-24T00:01:17.206701+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T04:30:40.612150+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T04:30:40.609281+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.