Rivian Automotive, Inc. · RIVN · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Rivian raises delivery outlook as R2 demand and services growth build

The current analysis supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: R2 demand, improving automotive losses, software-services growth, and liquidity strengthen Rivian's growth trajectory, while ramp costs and autonomy milestones remain material constraints.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $17.56B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.47 Consensus $-0.66
EPS surprise +29.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.66B Consensus $1.52B
Revenue surprise +9.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -9.6% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -10.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +5.6% Up to 20 sessions
RIVNSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

R2 external deliveries have started, early demand was stronger than expected, delivery guidance was raised, and software and services remained a larger growth contributor. Compared with the prior analysis, the production ramp is further along, but margin pressure during the ramp remains.

Guidance delta

Full-year delivery guidance was raised to 65–70k vehicles.

Key takeaways

  • R2 external deliveries began with strong early demand and higher-than-expected reservation-to-order conversion.
  • Automotive gross-profit losses narrowed, although the production ramp is expected to pressure margins again.
  • Software and services growth, the Volkswagen joint venture, and expanding commercial-van activity support the broader growth case.

Management priorities

  • Scale R2 production from one shift to two and expand annual capacity.
  • Grow software and services, including the Volkswagen joint venture and Autonomy+.
  • Advance point-to-point autonomy, Rivian Assistant, and the Georgia manufacturing program.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
RIVN EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $-1.24 Q2 '24 actual $-1.21, beat Q3 '24 estimate $-0.89 Q3 '24 actual $-1.03, miss Q2 '25 estimate $-0.65 Q2 '25 actual $-0.80, miss Q3 '25 estimate $-0.74 Q3 '25 actual $-0.70, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-0.71 Q4 '25 actual $-0.54, beat Q1 '26 estimate $-0.63 Q1 '26 actual $-0.55, beat Q2 '26 estimate $-0.66 Q2 '26 actual $-0.47, beat Q3 '26 estimate $-0.64 Q3 '26 actual $-0.48, beat Q4 '26 estimate $-0.55 Q1 '27 estimate $-0.47 Q2 '27 estimate $-0.41 Q3 '27 estimate $-0.41
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish1551.7%
Neutral931.0%
Bearish517.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$12.16Current
$12Low
$29.94Average
$141High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Needham Buy BuyMaintainOct 30, 2026
Jefferies Buy HoldUpgradeOct 30, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 30, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 31, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 31, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 31, 2026
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 31, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight NeutralUpgradeJul 27, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 9, 2026
BNP Paribas Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 8, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 11, 2026
Benchmark Buy BuyMaintainMay 1, 2026
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainApr 10, 2026
Canaccord Genuity Buy BuyMaintainApr 6, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainFeb 17, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 13, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy HoldUpgradeFeb 13, 2026
Wolfe Research Underperform Peer PerformDowngradeJan 12, 2026
Baird Outperform NeutralUpgradeDec 18, 2025
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainDec 12, 2025
Mizuho Underperform NeutralDowngradeOct 20, 2025
JP Morgan Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 20, 2025
Guggenheim Neutral BuyDowngradeJul 14, 2025
B of A Securities Underperform NeutralDowngradeFeb 24, 2025
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJan 22, 2025
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainJan 16, 2025
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 22, 2024
Exane BNP Paribas Outperform NeutralUpgradeAug 11, 2023
Redburn Partners Buy BuyMaintainJan 11, 2022
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $12.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$16$11.45 +31.6%Oct 30, 2026
Evercore ISIChris McNally$18$11.45 +48.0%Oct 30, 2026
NeedhamChris Pierce$18$11.45 +48.0%Oct 30, 2026
Stifel NicolausStephen Gengaro$22$16.96 +80.9%Aug 24, 2026
RBC CapitalTom Narayan$16$15.34 +31.6%Jul 31, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$14$16.83 +15.1%Jul 31, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$16$16.83 +31.6%Jul 31, 2026
Piper SandlerAlexander Potter$20$15.84 +64.5%Jul 27, 2026
UBSJoseph Spak$17$17.84 +39.8%Jul 9, 2026
D.A. DavidsonMichael Shlisky$15$14.06 +23.4%May 11, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$13$15.4 +6.9%May 1, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$19$15.53 +56.3%May 1, 2026
JefferiesOwen Paterson$15$15.1 +23.4%Mar 3, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$20$17.05 +64.5%Feb 17, 2026
D.A. DavidsonMichael Shlisky$14$17.38 +15.1%Feb 17, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$18$16.86 +48.0%Feb 13, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$11$14 -9.5%Feb 13, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$18$14 +48.0%Feb 13, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$23$14 +89.1%Feb 13, 2026
UBSJoseph Spak$16$14 +31.6%Feb 13, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$15$18.85 +23.4%Jan 14, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$16$19.19 +31.6%Jan 12, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$20$20.06 +64.5%Jan 8, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$18$19.41 +48.0%Jan 5, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$25$17.63 +105.6%Dec 18, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$16$16.42 +31.6%Dec 12, 2025
NeedhamAnalyst unavailable$23$16.42 +89.1%Dec 12, 2025
Morgan StanleyAndrew Percoco$12$17.95 -1.3%Dec 8, 2025
Tigress FinancialIvan Feinseth$25$15.34 +105.6%Nov 14, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$13$13.6 +6.9%Oct 6, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$15$15.59 +23.4%Sep 29, 2025
Piper SandlerAlexander Potter$15$15.91 +23.4%May 22, 2025
RBC CapitalTom Narayan$12$15.73 -1.3%Jan 3, 2025
Truist FinancialJordan Levy$12$15.73 -1.3%Jan 3, 2025
Stifel NicolausStephen Gengaro$16$10.48 +31.6%Nov 11, 2024
BarclaysDan Levy$13$10.39 +6.9%Oct 30, 2024
JefferiesPhilippe Houchois$17$11.71 +39.8%Sep 23, 2024
Deutsche BankEdison Yu$14$13.08 +15.1%Sep 9, 2024
Wells FargoColin Langan$15$14.8 +23.4%Aug 7, 2024
Truist FinancialJordan Levy$16$14.62 +31.6%Aug 2, 2024
Wells FargoColin Langan$18$17.19 +48.0%Jul 18, 2024
Morgan StanleyAdam Jonas$17$17.94 +39.8%Jul 17, 2024
Canaccord GenuityGeorge Gianarikas$30$13.42 +146.7%Jun 28, 2024
D.A. DavidsonMichael Shilsky$13$13.42 +6.9%Jun 28, 2024
NeedhamChris Pierce$20$14.47 +64.5%Jun 28, 2024
Stifel NicolausStephen Gengaro$18$14.46 +48.0%Jun 26, 2024
Truist FinancialJordan Levy$13$11.96 +6.9%Jun 26, 2024
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$20$11.96 +64.5%Jun 26, 2024
GuggenheimRonald Jewsikow$18$11.01 +48.0%Jun 25, 2024
Morgan StanleyAdam Jonas$13$10.97 +6.9%May 31, 2024
BarclaysDan Levy$10$8.83 -17.8%Apr 19, 2024
NeedhamChris Pierce$13$8.74 +6.9%Apr 18, 2024
UBSJoseph Spak$9$8.4 -26.0%Apr 15, 2024
Robert W. BairdBen Kallo$23$10.52 +89.1%Apr 2, 2024
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$23$10.63 +89.1%Apr 2, 2024
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$12$10.65 -1.3%Mar 25, 2024
Piper SandlerAlexander Potter$21$10.69 +72.7%Mar 14, 2024
WedbushDaniel Ives$20$12.83 +64.5%Mar 8, 2024
BarclaysDan Levy$16$15.89 +31.6%Feb 20, 2024
NeedhamChris Pierce$25$16.43 +105.6%Nov 27, 2023
RBC CapitalTom Narayan$15$16.61 +23.4%Nov 8, 2023
Evercore ISIChris McNally$35$24.28 +187.8%Oct 2, 2023
NeedhamChris Pierce$31$19.86 +154.9%Aug 24, 2023
BNP ParibasJames Picariello$30$21.91 +146.7%Aug 11, 2023
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$29$22.75 +138.5%Aug 9, 2023
Canaccord GenuityGeorge Gianarikas$40$19.99 +228.9%Jul 5, 2023
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$27$14.49 +122.0%May 10, 2023
RBC CapitalTom Narayan$14$12.92 +15.1%Apr 19, 2023
Morgan StanleyNames Top$63$13.38 +418.1%Apr 14, 2023
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$35$14.47 +187.8%Mar 9, 2023
NeedhamChris Pierce$26$15.76 +113.8%Mar 1, 2023
WedbushDaniel Ives$25$17.45 +105.6%Mar 1, 2023
BarclaysDan Levy$28$20.22 +130.3%Feb 18, 2023
Goldman SachsMark Delaney$19$16.45 +56.3%Jan 10, 2023
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$50$17.76 +311.2%Jan 4, 2023
Morgan StanleyAdam Jonas$55$25.58 +352.3%Dec 12, 2022
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$35$28.85 +187.8%Nov 30, 2022
WedbushDaniel Ives$37$32.96 +204.3%Nov 10, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$58$32.96 +377.0%Nov 10, 2022
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$50$32.96 +311.2%Nov 10, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$65$36.7 +434.5%Oct 6, 2022
RBC CapitalJoseph Spak Spak$62$32.31 +409.9%Sep 29, 2022
WedbushDaniel Ives$45$38.75 +270.1%Sep 12, 2022
WedbushDaniel Ives$40$31.3 +228.9%Jul 8, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$70$25.7 +475.7%Jul 4, 2022
D.A. DavidsonMichael Shlisky$24$26.24 +97.4%Jun 18, 2022
Morgan StanleyAdam Jonas$60$27.49 +393.4%May 17, 2022
Deutsche BankEmmanuel Rosner$69$26.7 +467.4%May 15, 2022
Wells FargoColin Langan$24$20.6 +97.4%May 12, 2022
RBC CapitalJoseph Spak$77$24.21 +533.2%May 12, 2022
Deutsche BankEmmanuel Rosner$90$31.52 +640.1%Apr 26, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$38$33.9 +212.5%Apr 26, 2022
Piper SandlerAlexander Potter$112$36.23 +821.1%Apr 21, 2022
RBC CapitalJoseph Spak$100$38.8 +722.4%Apr 10, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$95$46.44 +681.3%Apr 2, 2022
Wells FargoColin Langan$40$38.05 +228.9%Mar 11, 2022
Deutsche BankEmmanuel Rosner$91$38.05 +648.4%Mar 11, 2022
J.P. MorganRyan Brinkman$68$38.05 +459.2%Mar 11, 2022
BarclaysBrian Johnson$47$42.21 +286.5%Mar 8, 2022
Robert W. BairdGeorge Gianarikas$100$47.39 +722.4%Mar 4, 2022
RBC CapitalJoseph Spak$116$53.56 +853.9%Mar 2, 2022
Wells FargoColin Langan$70$61.91 +475.7%Mar 1, 2022
Redburn PartnersCharles Coldicott$141$79.95 +1059.5%Jan 16, 2022
Tigress FinancialIvan Feinseth$147$114.66 +1108.9%Dec 10, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Rivian Automotive, Inc. specializes in the design, engineering, and manufacturing of electric vehicles and related accessories. The company produces five-passenger electric pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles for individual consumers. Furthermore, Rivian develops a commercial electric delivery van platform, notably in partnership with Amazon.com. This firm markets its products directly to customers across both the consumer and commercial sectors. Founded in 2009, Rivian Automotive, Inc. maintains its primary operations in San Jose, California.

Historical context

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-31T01:05:39.429525+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-04T01:23:15.205020+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T10:40:44.106888+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-31T10:40:44.104515+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.