PayPal Holdings, Inc. · PYPL · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

PayPal Maintains 2025 Guidance as Debit and Venmo Gain

The supplied transcript analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: PayPal's profitable growth, debit adoption, Venmo momentum and new commerce initiatives strengthen the operating narrative, while macro, credit, competitive and rollout risks remain material.

Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services $47.50B market cap
70quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.15
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $7.84B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +2.1% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +1.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +7.7% Up to 20 sessions
PYPLSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The quarter's analysis emphasized continued profitable growth and stronger consumer engagement through debit and Venmo. Management also highlighted new AI-enabled commerce capabilities, international PayPal Ads, PYUSD rewards and expanded BNPL as areas intended to support future platform development.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year 2025 guidance despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

Key takeaways

  • Management described a fifth consecutive profitable quarter, with transaction margin dollars up 8% and non-GAAP EPS up 23%.
  • Branded-experience TPV grew 8%, while PayPal and Venmo debit TPV increased 100% and 64%, respectively.
  • Venmo revenue rose 20% and Pay with Venmo TPV increased 50%.
  • New initiatives include AI-enabled commerce, PayPal Ads, expanded BNPL and PYUSD rewards.

Management priorities

  • Expand branded checkout, omnichannel experiences and debit-card adoption.
  • Scale Venmo, Pay with Venmo and BNPL offerings.
  • Develop AI-enabled agentic commerce and the remote MCP server ecosystem.
  • Expand PayPal Ads internationally, beginning with the UK.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PYPL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.99 Q2 '24 actual $1.19, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.07 Q3 '24 actual $1.20, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.11 Q4 '24 actual $1.19, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.30 Q2 '25 actual $1.40, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.20 Q3 '25 actual $1.34, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.29 Q4 '25 actual $1.23, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.27 Q1 '26 actual $1.34, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.28 Q2 '26 actual $1.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.31 Q4 '26 estimate $1.35 Q1 '27 estimate $1.43 Q2 '27 estimate $1.46
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold68 ratings
Bullish2435.3%
Neutral4160.3%
Bearish34.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$56.05Current
$40Low
$94.27Average
$290High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 9, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainAug 31, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 31, 2026
Loop Capital Hold HoldMaintainAug 28, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 17, 2026
Show 64 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $56.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$56$55.02 -0.1%Oct 9, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$55$53.22 -1.9%Sep 25, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$70$53.66 +24.9%Aug 31, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$53$53.66 -5.4%Aug 31, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsDominick Gabriele$50$61.47 -10.8%Aug 28, 2026
See 218 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

PayPal Holdings, Inc. provides a worldwide technological framework that facilitates digital financial transactions for both businesses and individual users. The company offers a wide array of payment services through well-known brands such as PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy. Through its extensive platform, consumers are able to send and receive funds across roughly 200 global markets and in approximately 100 different currencies. Additionally, users can transfer money to their bank accounts in 56 currencies and maintain account balances in 25 distinct currencies within their PayPal accounts. Founded in 1998, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.

Historical context

All PYPL earnings

Financial Services peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-15T00:03:42.498162+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T22:50:45.940850+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T22:50:45.938185+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.