Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1768.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish14.0%
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
PMI grows smoke-free portfolio as U.S. ZYN investment raises costs
PMI's Q3 evidence supports a continuing smoke-free growth engine: IQOS, ZYN and VEEV delivered share gains and pricing-led revenue growth. The counterweight is rising U.S. investment, tax and geopolitical cost pressure, leaving the near-term earnings path dependent on execution and mix.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$311.57B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.30
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $11.32B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
PMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PM FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove PM's -1.4% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in PM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for PM after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added evidence of portfolio momentum, including 62% VEEV shipment growth and adjusted operating income above $5 billion for the first time. Management also emphasized higher U.S. ZYN investment, a 20-pouch format with a 25% per-pouch price reduction, and roughly 0.5% EPS headwinds from geopolitical and energy pressures.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained, with adjusted operating income and EPS expected in the mid-to-lower half of the previously provided range.
Key takeaways
- Organic net revenue grew 7% year over year, driven by smoke-free volume and pricing.
- IQOS, ZYN and VEEV continued to gain share across multiple geographies.
- VEEV shipments rose 62% in Q3 and became Europe's leading closed-pod system.
- The U.S. ZYN shift to 20-pouch cans and a 25% per-pouch price reduction increases near-term execution risk.
Management priorities
- Expand IQOS, ZYN and VEEV through new products, formats and geographies.
- Continue the U.S. ZYN rollout and higher commercial investment.
- Manage pricing, tax and cost pressures while advancing smoke-free share gains.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$197.46Current
$99Low
$158.92Average
$225High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2024 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2018 |
| SBG Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Reduce | Upgrade | Nov 30, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $197.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Faham Baig | $192 | $190.23 | -2.8% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $225 | $200.17 | +13.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $191.12 | +11.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.3 | +3.8% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $215 | $194.3 | +8.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $194.3 | +8.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $188.04 | +9.4% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $180.7 | -7.8% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.66 | +1.3% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $157.11 | -14.9% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $190 | $156.58 | -3.8% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $195 | $158.68 | -1.2% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.4 | +3.8% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181.5 | $180.24 | -8.1% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $205 | $182.81 | +3.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $182.81 | +1.3% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Edward Mundy | $180 | $173.62 | -8.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $175 | $152 | -11.4% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $152 | -8.8% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $186 | $150.17 | -5.8% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $181 | $180.37 | -8.3% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $155 | $131.57 | -21.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $142 | $131.41 | -28.1% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Simon Hales | $132 | $118.91 | -33.2% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $135 | $121.4 | -31.6% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $145 | $125.81 | -26.6% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $139 | $125.71 | -29.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $138 | $125.71 | -30.1% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $110.24 | -41.8% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $109.56 | -39.2% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $118 | $94.06 | -40.2% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $113 | $90.27 | -42.8% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $110 | $98.77 | -44.3% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $118 | $97.36 | -40.2% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $150 | $95.08 | -24.0% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $114 | $98.16 | -42.3% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $90.6 | -49.9% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $109 | $98.16 | -44.8% | May 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $117 | $102.69 | -40.7% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $112 | $103.53 | -43.3% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $105 | $93.94 | -46.8% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| UBS | Nik Oliver | $110 | $111.61 | -44.3% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $107 | $91.94 | -45.8% | Jun 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPhilip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States.…
Historical context
All PM earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- NLY-PFFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+3.6% EPS— move
- NLY-PGFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+3.6% EPS— move
- NLYFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+3.6% EPS-0.6% move
- CBFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+12.8% EPS-0.4% move
- ISRGFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+13.2% EPS-3.6% move
- SPCXFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+160.0% EPS-0.1% move
Missed on EPS
- PACFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026-2.2% EPS+7.1% move
- AGNCZFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCLFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS0.0% move
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
Get the PM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-21T17:06:28.959414+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-21T01:23:14.182042+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T18:40:44.765640+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-21T18:40:44.763028+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.