Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1768.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish14.0%
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
PMI Q1: Smoke-Free Growth Supports Reaffirmed 2026 Outlook
PMI’s Q1 analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: smoke-free growth, pricing and mix remained strong, while reaffirmed guidance indicates management sees the trajectory as intact. The thesis depends on sustaining IQOS and ZYN momentum, managing inventory and navigating product approvals and tax risk.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$298.47B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.96
Consensus $1.86
EPS surprise
+5.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.15B
Consensus $9.95B
Revenue surprise
+1.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+7.0%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+15.1%
Up to 20 sessions
PMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PM FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PM rise 7.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in PM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for PM after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis highlighted strong international smoke-free performance, pricing-led revenue growth, margin expansion and U.S. ZYN volume growth despite shipment headwinds. It also added planned launches in Portugal and Kenya, a pending IQOS ILUMA U.S. rollout and a later-2026 ZYN Ultra introduction.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management reaffirmed 2026 organic revenue growth guidance of 5–7% and operating-income growth guidance of 7–9%.
Key takeaways
- International smoke-free performance was strong, led by IQOS, ZYN and VEEV.
- Pricing and a favorable smoke-free mix supported revenue growth and gross-margin expansion.
- U.S. ZYN volume grew despite shipment headwinds from inventory normalization.
- New market launches and products are intended to support further growth, subject to approvals and execution.
Management priorities
- Expand IQOS, ZYN and VEEV across existing and new markets.
- Advance planned ZYN launches in Portugal and Kenya and develop ZYN Ultra.
- Roll out IQOS ILUMA in the United States pending FDA approval.
- Continue smoke-free research and development, supply-chain efficiencies and cost savings.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$191.5Current
$99Low
$158.92Average
$225High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2024 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2018 |
| SBG Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Reduce | Upgrade | Nov 30, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $191.5. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Faham Baig | $192 | $190.23 | +0.3% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $225 | $200.17 | +17.5% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $191.12 | +15.4% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.3 | +7.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $215 | $194.3 | +12.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $194.3 | +12.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $188.04 | +12.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $180.7 | -5.0% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.66 | +4.4% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $157.11 | -12.3% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $190 | $156.58 | -0.8% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $195 | $158.68 | +1.8% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.4 | +7.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181.5 | $180.24 | -5.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $205 | $182.81 | +7.0% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $182.81 | +4.4% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Edward Mundy | $180 | $173.62 | -6.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $175 | $152 | -8.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $152 | -6.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $186 | $150.17 | -2.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $181 | $180.37 | -5.5% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $155 | $131.57 | -19.1% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $142 | $131.41 | -25.8% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Simon Hales | $132 | $118.91 | -31.1% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $135 | $121.4 | -29.5% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $145 | $125.81 | -24.3% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $139 | $125.71 | -27.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $138 | $125.71 | -27.9% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $110.24 | -39.9% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $109.56 | -37.3% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $118 | $94.06 | -38.4% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $113 | $90.27 | -41.0% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $110 | $98.77 | -42.6% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $118 | $97.36 | -38.4% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $150 | $95.08 | -21.7% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $114 | $98.16 | -40.5% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $90.6 | -48.3% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $109 | $98.16 | -43.1% | May 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $117 | $102.69 | -38.9% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $112 | $103.53 | -41.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $105 | $93.94 | -45.2% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| UBS | Nik Oliver | $110 | $111.61 | -42.6% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $107 | $91.94 | -44.1% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPhilip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States.…
Historical context
All PM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
| BF-A Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | — | Brown-Forman holds FY27 outlook as RTD innovation offsets barrel pressure |
| BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | — | Brown-Forman maintains FY27 outlook as innovation offsets pressure |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +23.4% | +2.5% | Dollar General Raises FY2026 Outlook After Strong Q2 |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
Get the PM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T06:00:56.455639+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T06:00:56.452774+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.