Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold24 ratings
Bullish937.5%
Neutral1354.2%
Bearish28.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Packaging Corporation of America · PKG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
PKG Beats Q2 EPS Guidance as Greif Integration Hits Stride
Packaging Corporation of America delivered a second consecutive quarter of earnings beats with Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of 2.35 exceeding its own 2.33 guidance despite persistent cost headwinds from freight recycled fiber and labor. The Greif containerboard acquisition is now fully integrated and contributing positively adding 0.14 to EPS. A new Ohio corrugated plant started up ahead of schedule expanding capacity in a strategic region. Management guided Q3 adjusted EPS to 2.91 reflecting expected benefits from the second phase of price increases and continued strong demand. The market responded favorably with an abnormal move of plus 3.7 percent on 2.1x baseline volume and subsequent drift of plus 6.3 percent.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$22.22B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationPackaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.35
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.49B
Consensus $2.49B
Revenue surprise
-0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$248.63Current
$147Low
$242Average
$312High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Dec 7, 2020 | |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 26, 2019 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 12, 2018 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2016 |
| Dundee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2016 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $248.63. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $249.92 | +10.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $256.43 | +25.5% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $271 | $238.36 | +9.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $224.46 | -1.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $251 | $217.99 | +1.0% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $203.17 | -0.3% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $218.06 | +3.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $232 | $212.08 | -6.7% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $245 | $212.87 | -1.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $258 | $212.87 | +3.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $213.41 | +4.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $207.72 | +7.4% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $220.02 | +8.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $216.65 | -5.5% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $211.13 | +9.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $233 | $211.13 | -6.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $230 | $213.26 | -7.5% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $209.65 | -9.5% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $264 | $209.02 | +6.2% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $212.93 | -10.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $213.2 | -9.1% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $212.08 | +5.4% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $280 | $229.22 | +12.6% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $252 | $228.65 | +1.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $253 | $228.65 | +1.8% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $235 | $213.37 | -5.5% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $191 | $173.42 | -23.2% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Charlie Muir-Sands | $182 | $186.28 | -26.8% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $125 | $136.77 | -49.7% | Feb 28, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $112.88 | -38.9% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.33 | -42.5% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $136.93 | -40.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $136.71 | -38.1% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $139.68 | -42.1% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $162.62 | -34.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Kyle White | $158 | $162.29 | -36.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
Track every rating change on PKG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.5%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.3%
Up to 20 sessions
PKGSPY benchmark
Follow PKG with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Adjusted EPS of 2.35 beat guidance of 2.33 and consensus of 2.31. Greif containerboard business fully integrated contributing 0.14 EPS. New Ohio plant started up ahead of schedule adding regional capacity. Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of 2.91 up from Q2 2.35. Second price increase expected to be 70 to 75 percent realized in Q3. Revenue of 2.49B slightly missed consensus of 2.493B.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year capex guidance of 840 to 870M and issued Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of 2.91 up from Q2 2.35 reflecting expected pricing benefits and continued volume growth. Prior-quarter guidance sentiment was raised; this quarter management characterized the outlook as maintained with incremental confidence in pricing execution.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of 2.35 beat both guidance 2.33 and consensus 2.31 a 1.7 percent surprise
- Greif acquisition is now fully integrated and contributed 0.14 to EPS with synergies expected to exceed the original 30M target
- A new 550000 sq ft Ohio corrugated plant started up ahead of schedule
- Management guided Q3 adjusted EPS to 2.91 reflecting strong demand and price increases
- Capex guidance maintained at 840 to 870M including gas turbine projects
- Revenue of 2.49B was essentially in line with consensus
Management priorities
- Execute the second announced price increase with 70 to 75 percent realization in Q3
- Continue realizing synergies from the fully integrated Greif business beyond 30M
- Ramp the new Ohio plant to capture regional demand
- Advance gas turbine projects at Jackson Riverville and DeRidder for energy resilience
- Build inventory in early Q3 to support tight market conditions
- Maintain full capacity operations in the paper segment
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T16:04:48.124994+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-30T01:23:13.872335+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T23:13:27.893319+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T23:13:27.890744+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.