Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold24 ratings
Bullish937.5%
Neutral1354.2%
Bearish28.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Packaging Corporation of America · PKG · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
PCA beats Q1 on pricing and mix; flags Q2 cost pressure
PCA is executing a pricing- and productivity-led margin story: strong demand in food & beverage and building products end-markets, price increases across containerboard and paper that mostly land in Q3, Greif synergies building toward a $30M run rate, and gas-turbine projects that should lower electricity costs. Near-term Q2 faces input-cost and outage headwinds. The market rewarded the beat with a sharp reaction,
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$21.22B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.40
Consensus $2.14
EPS surprise
+12.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.37B
Consensus $2.43B
Revenue surprise
-2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.8%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.6%
Up to 20 sessions
PKGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PKG FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PKG rise 4.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in PKG's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for PKG after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
PCA beat its own guidance: prior-quarter management guided to about $2.20 ex-special Q1 EPS, and actual ex-special EPS came in at $2.40, 12% above consensus of $2.14; net income rose to $171M. Guidance sentiment moved to raised. The inflection is Greif: integration is past its historically weakest quarter, with a roughly 10% productivity lift and a $30M run-rate synergy target, and price increases starting May/June should land the bulk of benefit in Q3. The stock moved up ~5.2% abnormal versus a flat benchmark on ~2.5x average volume.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment moved to raised from maintained. Management reiterated 2026 capex of $840-870M and staged the price-increase benefit: hikes begin in May/June with the bulk expected in Q3. Management flagged Q2 headwinds from higher freight, chemicals and recycled fiber, higher stock-based compensation, and outage expenses (~$0.36/share), while citing continued strong demand and full-capacity paper operations.
Key takeaways
- Q1 earnings topped expectations: ex-special EPS $2.40 vs consensus $2.14; EBITDA margin about 22% in packaging.
- Greif integration is progressing past its weakest quarter, with roughly a 10% productivity lift and a $30M annual run-rate synergy target.
- Price increases are slated for May/June, with the bulk of the benefit expected in Q3.
- Cost pressures (freight, chemicals, recycled fiber, higher stock-based comp) will pressure Q2 earnings.
- Full-year 2026 capex guidance stays at $840-870M, including gas-turbine projects for energy resilience.
Management priorities
- Complete Greif systems integration by end of Q3 and further reduce Greif inventory.
- Implement announced price increases across containerboard and paper starting in May.
- Execute gas-turbine projects at Jackson, Riverville and a scoped third at DeRidder toward electricity independence.
- Optimize mill mix and maintain full-capacity paper operations.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$236.78Current
$147Low
$246.93Average
$312High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Dec 7, 2020 | |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 26, 2019 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 12, 2018 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2016 |
| Dundee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2016 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $236.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $256.31 | +23.3% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $257.9 | +14.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $249.92 | +15.7% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $256.43 | +31.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $271 | $238.36 | +14.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $224.46 | +3.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $251 | $217.99 | +6.0% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $203.17 | +4.7% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $218.06 | +8.1% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $232 | $212.08 | -2.0% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $245 | $212.87 | +3.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $258 | $212.87 | +9.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $213.41 | +9.8% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $207.72 | +12.8% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $220.02 | +14.0% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $216.65 | -0.8% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $211.13 | +15.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $233 | $211.13 | -1.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $230 | $213.26 | -2.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $209.65 | -5.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $264 | $209.02 | +11.5% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $212.93 | -6.2% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $213.2 | -4.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $212.08 | +10.7% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $280 | $229.22 | +18.3% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $252 | $228.65 | +6.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $253 | $228.65 | +6.8% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $235 | $213.37 | -0.8% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $191 | $173.42 | -19.3% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Charlie Muir-Sands | $182 | $186.28 | -23.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $125 | $136.77 | -47.2% | Feb 28, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $112.88 | -35.8% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.33 | -39.6% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $136.93 | -37.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $136.71 | -35.0% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $139.68 | -39.2% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $162.62 | -31.6% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Kyle White | $158 | $162.29 | -33.3% | Apr 26, 2022 |
Track every rating change on PKG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPackaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging.…
Historical context
All PKG earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Get the PKG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T18:21:13.891785+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T18:21:13.888904+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.