Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold24 ratings
Bullish937.5%
Neutral1354.2%
Bearish28.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Packaging Corporation of America · PKG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
PCA sees improving demand, with pricing and execution risks ahead
The supplied evidence supports a constructive but conditional view: stronger corrugated demand, pricing and mix, Greif synergies, and energy projects can support earnings, but the thesis depends on price realization, integration, cost control, and disciplined execution of the larger 2026 capex plan.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$20.47B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.32
Consensus $2.41
EPS surprise
-3.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.36B
Consensus $2.44B
Revenue surprise
-3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.5%
Up to 20 sessions
PKGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PKG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PKG fall 2.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in PKG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PKG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Since the prior quarter, management reported a completed Greif acquisition with continued integration, a rebuilt Massillon mill with a reported 15% efficiency improvement, and a plan to run all mills at full capacity in 2026. The 2026 capex outlook is now $840-$870 million, and Q1 2026 EPS guidance is $2.20.
Guidance delta
Management provided Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $2.20, while 2026 capex is projected at $840-$870 million versus the prior quarter's $800 million outlook for the year.
Key takeaways
- Q4 2025 net income was $102 million, or $1.13 per share, and full-year earnings were $888 million, or $9.84 per share.
- Management said corrugated-box demand is strengthening and plans to run all mills at full capacity in 2026.
- The Greif integration is progressing, while the Massillon rebuild delivered a reported 15% efficiency improvement.
- The next leg of the story depends on price realization, cost control, integration, and returns on higher 2026 capital spending.
Management priorities
- Integrate Greif assets and standardize inventory and paper grades.
- Advance the $250 million gas-turbine program and other mill and converting projects.
- Run mills at full capacity while pursuing modest cost improvements and implementing announced price increases.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$229.71Previous close
$147Low
$246.93Average
$312High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Dec 7, 2020 | |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 26, 2019 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 12, 2018 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2016 |
| Dundee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2016 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $229.71. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $256.31 | +27.1% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $257.9 | +18.4% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $249.92 | +19.3% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $256.43 | +35.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $271 | $238.36 | +18.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $224.46 | +7.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $251 | $217.99 | +9.3% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $203.17 | +8.0% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $218.06 | +11.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $232 | $212.08 | +1.0% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $245 | $212.87 | +6.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $258 | $212.87 | +12.3% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $213.41 | +13.2% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $207.72 | +16.2% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $220.02 | +17.5% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $216.65 | +2.3% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $211.13 | +18.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $233 | $211.13 | +1.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $230 | $213.26 | +0.1% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $209.65 | -2.1% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $264 | $209.02 | +14.9% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $212.93 | -3.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $213.2 | -1.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $212.08 | +14.1% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $280 | $229.22 | +21.9% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $252 | $228.65 | +9.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $253 | $228.65 | +10.1% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $235 | $213.37 | +2.3% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $191 | $173.42 | -16.9% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Charlie Muir-Sands | $182 | $186.28 | -20.8% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $125 | $136.77 | -45.6% | Feb 28, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $112.88 | -33.8% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.33 | -37.7% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $136.93 | -36.0% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $136.71 | -33.0% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $139.68 | -37.3% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $162.62 | -29.5% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Kyle White | $158 | $162.29 | -31.2% | Apr 26, 2022 |
Track every rating change on PKG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPackaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging.…
Historical context
All PKG earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the PKG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T05:36:07.027801+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T05:36:07.024883+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.