Packaging Corporation of America · PKG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

PCA sees improving demand, with pricing and execution risks ahead

The supplied evidence supports a constructive but conditional view: stronger corrugated demand, pricing and mix, Greif synergies, and energy projects can support earnings, but the thesis depends on price realization, integration, cost control, and disciplined execution of the larger 2026 capex plan.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $20.47B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.32 Consensus $2.41
EPS surprise -3.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.36B Consensus $2.44B
Revenue surprise -3.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.7% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -2.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.5% Up to 20 sessions
PKGSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about PKG FY2025 Q4

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PKG fall 2.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in PKG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PKG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Since the prior quarter, management reported a completed Greif acquisition with continued integration, a rebuilt Massillon mill with a reported 15% efficiency improvement, and a plan to run all mills at full capacity in 2026. The 2026 capex outlook is now $840-$870 million, and Q1 2026 EPS guidance is $2.20.

Guidance delta

Management provided Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $2.20, while 2026 capex is projected at $840-$870 million versus the prior quarter's $800 million outlook for the year.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 2025 net income was $102 million, or $1.13 per share, and full-year earnings were $888 million, or $9.84 per share.
  • Management said corrugated-box demand is strengthening and plans to run all mills at full capacity in 2026.
  • The Greif integration is progressing, while the Massillon rebuild delivered a reported 15% efficiency improvement.
  • The next leg of the story depends on price realization, cost control, integration, and returns on higher 2026 capital spending.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Greif assets and standardize inventory and paper grades.
  • Advance the $250 million gas-turbine program and other mill and converting projects.
  • Run mills at full capacity while pursuing modest cost improvements and implementing announced price increases.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PKG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.83 Q4 '23 actual $2.13, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1.68 Q1 '24 actual $1.72, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.14 Q2 '24 actual $2.20, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.50 Q3 '24 actual $2.65, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.44 Q2 '25 actual $2.48, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.82 Q3 '25 actual $2.73, miss Q4 '25 estimate $2.41 Q4 '25 actual $2.32, miss Q1 '26 estimate $2.14 Q1 '26 actual $2.40, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.31 Q2 '26 actual $2.35, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.93 Q4 '26 estimate $2.80 Q1 '27 estimate $2.81 Q2 '27 estimate $3.20
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold24 ratings
Bullish937.5%
Neutral1354.2%
Bearish28.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$229.71Previous close
$147Low
$246.93Average
$312High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 23, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 11, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 13, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 28, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 15, 2026
Show 20 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $229.71. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$292$256.31 +27.1%Aug 13, 2026
Seaport GlobalAnalyst unavailable$272$257.9 +18.4%Aug 12, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$274$249.92 +19.3%Jul 29, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsAnalyst unavailable$312$256.43 +35.8%Jul 28, 2026
UBSAnojja Shah$271$238.36 +18.0%Jul 24, 2026
See 33 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging.…

Historical context

All PKG earnings
+2.5%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+4.8%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

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Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T05:36:07.027801+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T05:36:07.024883+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.