Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold43 ratings
Bullish2046.5%
Neutral2046.5%
Bearish37.0%
PulteGroup, Inc. · PHM · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
PulteGroup: Growth Plans Hold, Affordability Remains the Test
The supplied analysis provides support for a constructive long-term housing-demand case through structural undersupply, resilient employment, and move-up and active-adult demand. Evidence against an unqualified growth view includes affordability pressure, higher mortgage rates, cost inflation, regional exposure, and the need to manage elevated spec inventory.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$23.08B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $3.28
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.65B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+4.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-12.9%
Up to 20 sessions
PHMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PHM FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove PHM's +4.9% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in PHM's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PHM after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the supplied prior-quarter analysis, the focus shifted from a record-year outlook and a $5 billion land plan to execution of a 2025 plan targeting approximately 31,000 closings and about $5.5 billion of land and development investment. Management also identified a larger share-repurchase authorization, a planned dividend increase, a 40%–45% spec-inventory target, and rising land costs as key developments.
Guidance delta
Management's 2025 outlook was characterized as maintained: approximately 31,000 closings, 26.5%–27% gross margin, and about $5.5 billion of land and development investment.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes record 2024 home-sale revenue and 9% volume growth despite affordability headwinds.
- Management emphasized structural housing undersupply, employment resilience, move-up and active-adult demand, and the spring selling season as demand supports.
- Capital generation remains a priority, with continued dividends and share repurchases alongside land investment.
- The central tension is growth investment and volume against mortgage-rate, affordability, cost, and regional risks.
Management priorities
- Execute the 2025 land and development plan.
- Pursue approximately 31,000 closings while managing affordability constraints.
- Reduce spec inventory to 40%–45% of production by year-end.
- Maintain flexible capital allocation, including dividends, repurchases, and selective acquisition review.
- Improve operating capacity across the land pipeline and strategic partnerships platform.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$121.19Current
$52Low
$120.97Average
$166High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Aug 24, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2025 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Zelman & Assoc | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 23, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 12, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 23, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 24, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 24, 2019 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 22, 2018 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Zelman | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 4, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 22, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 22, 2015 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2015 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 13, 2014 |
| FBN Securities | Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Dec 30, 2013 |
| Williams Financial | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 30, 2013 |
| Williams Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 30, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Jul 26, 2013 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 16, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $121.19. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $109 | $119.54 | -10.1% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $112.12 | +13.9% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $112.33 | +19.6% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $113.98 | +8.9% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $113.98 | -9.2% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $128 | $116.06 | +5.6% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jonathan Bettenhausen | $136 | $119.47 | +12.2% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $116.41 | +19.6% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $129 | +30.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Trevor Allinson | $129 | $129 | +6.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $166 | $123.25 | +37.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $123.28 | -4.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $122.5 | +33.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $126.75 | +2.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $123.75 | +1.5% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $129.16 | +33.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Kim | $151 | $129.22 | +24.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $130.64 | +15.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $121.33 | +23.8% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $130.46 | +19.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $124.72 | -5.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $149 | $127.26 | +22.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $133.23 | +18.8% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $111 | $123.16 | -8.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $119.86 | +31.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $115 | $126.99 | -5.1% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $123.27 | +10.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $135.48 | +27.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $109 | $101.06 | -10.1% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $141 | $101.06 | +16.3% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $98 | $101.06 | -19.1% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $135 | $110.01 | +11.4% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $165 | $139.44 | +36.1% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Rafe Jadrosich | $160 | $140.99 | +32.0% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $150 | $125.67 | +23.8% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $131 | $113.84 | +8.1% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Tyler Batory | $143 | $114.2 | +18.0% | May 22, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $135 | $108.09 | +11.4% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $136 | $116.48 | +12.2% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Truman Patterson | $64 | $55.94 | -47.2% | Mar 23, 2023 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $75 | $58.8 | -38.1% | Feb 5, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $60.11 | -38.9% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $59.33 | -43.9% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $56.83 | -55.4% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $56.56 | -53.0% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $56.53 | -43.9% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $56.96 | -43.9% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $50.46 | -58.7% | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $45.79 | -52.1% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $43.28 | -49.7% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $43.66 | -51.3% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $48 | $44.7 | -60.4% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $49.5 | $44.06 | -59.2% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $41 | $37.92 | -66.2% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $36.25 | -64.5% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $35.16 | -66.2% | Jun 17, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $39.43 | -54.6% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $43.56 | -53.8% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Deepa Raghavan | $52 | $50.27 | -57.1% | Nov 15, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $70 | $48.46 | -42.2% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $58 | $49.09 | -52.1% | Sep 8, 2021 |
| Janney Montgomery | Tyler Batory | $71 | $58.02 | -41.4% | Apr 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PHM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPulteGroup, Inc. engages in the homebuilding business. The firm is also involved in mortgage banking and title and insurance brokerage operations. It operates through the Homebuilding and Financial services business segments. The Homebuilding segment includes operations from Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Texas, Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Washington. The Financial Services segment is composed of mortgage banking and title operations. The company was founded by William J. Pulte in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, GA.
Historical context
All PHM earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.4% | -0.2% | Deckers raises FY2027 outlook as HOKA and UGG drive growth |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.3% | +6.2% | Tractor Supply Q3: Pet and Digital Momentum Supports Margin Plan |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.8% | +4.2% | PCA beats Q3 expectations as Greif synergies offset cost pressure |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the PHM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-16T00:01:26.053560+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T23:20:44.122459+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T23:20:44.119618+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.