Performance Food Group Co · PFGC · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q1 2025

PFGC: Growth and Integration Progress, With Leverage a Key Watchpoint

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: organic case growth, acquisition integration, and a raised outlook strengthen the growth case, but elevated leverage and cost or demand risks make the durability of that trajectory the key issue.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive $14.88B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.04
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $15.46B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -2.6% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -3.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -10.8% Up to 20 sessions
PFGCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis highlights faster organic independent case growth, adjusted EBITDA above prior guidance, a raised full-year outlook, and more evidence of acquisition integration. Capital spending is characterized as stable, while debt reduction remains a central priority.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance, according to the supplied transcript analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Organic independent restaurant case growth accelerated, while adjusted EBITDA exceeded prior guidance.
  • Recent acquisitions are contributing top- and bottom-line momentum, with further integration work ahead.
  • The main counterweight is elevated leverage alongside inflation, tariff, and weather risks.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Chaney Brothers and Jose Santiago and pursue expected synergies.
  • Maintain disciplined capital spending while funding growth projects.
  • Reduce debt toward the stated leverage target and expand micro-market and convenience foodservice offerings.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PFGC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.84 Q3 '24 actual $0.80, miss Q4 '24 estimate $1.37 Q4 '24 actual $1.45, beat Q1 '25 estimate $1.21 Q1 '25 actual $1.16, miss Q4 '25 estimate $1.46 Q4 '25 actual $1.55, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.21 Q1 '26 actual $1.18, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1.07 Q2 '26 actual $0.98, miss Q3 '26 estimate $0.78 Q3 '26 actual $0.80, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.60 Q4 '26 actual $1.59, match Q1 '27 estimate $1.29 Q2 '27 estimate $1.21 Q3 '27 estimate $1.04 Q4 '27 estimate $2.07
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish2492.3%
Neutral27.7%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$94.71Current
$62Low
$105.05Average
$136High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 15, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 14, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 13, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 14, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainJun 29, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 7, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainDec 12, 2025
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 14, 2025
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainNov 7, 2024
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2024
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainAug 15, 2024
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainFeb 8, 2024
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 11, 2023
Berenberg Buy BuyMaintainMay 18, 2022
CL King Buy BuyMaintainMar 11, 2022
BTIG Neutral BuyDowngradeAug 20, 2021
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 23, 2020
Buckingham Research Buy BuyMaintainFeb 6, 2020
Buckingham Buy BuyMaintainFeb 6, 2020
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2019
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2019
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 10, 2018
Loop Capital Buy BuyMaintainMay 16, 2017
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainDec 9, 2016
BB&T Capital Buy BuyMaintainOct 27, 2015
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $94.71. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$136$95.08 +43.6%Oct 15, 2026
UBSMark Carden$130$105.92 +37.3%Aug 17, 2026
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$133$104.9 +40.4%Aug 13, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$131$112.99 +38.3%Jul 15, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$130$113.31 +37.3%Jul 14, 2026
GuggenheimJohn Heinbockel$125$110.44 +32.0%Jun 29, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$123$91.6 +29.9%May 7, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$115$92.88 +21.4%May 7, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$108$89.86 +14.0%Feb 5, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$123$97.61 +29.9%Jan 20, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$105$87.47 +10.9%Jan 7, 2026
UBSMark Carden$120$91.66 +26.7%Dec 19, 2025
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$111$94.4 +17.2%Dec 12, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$118$100.94 +24.6%Oct 22, 2025
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$130$101.14 +37.3%Oct 22, 2025
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$114$105.18 +20.4%Sep 2, 2025
GuggenheimJohn Heinbockel$115$102.11 +21.4%Aug 26, 2025
Wells FargoEdward Kelly$115$101.27 +21.4%Aug 13, 2025
BernsteinJeffrey Bernstein$112$84.66 +18.3%May 29, 2025
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$92$83.69 -2.9%Nov 18, 2024
Wells FargoEdward Kelly$88$78.41 -7.1%Oct 8, 2024
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$88$72.12 -7.1%Aug 15, 2024
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$94$72.25 -0.7%Aug 15, 2024
BMO CapitalKelly Bania$87$72.25 -8.1%Aug 15, 2024
StephensJoshua Long$75$60.47 -20.8%Nov 8, 2023
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$70$52.25 -26.1%Aug 19, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$60$52.37 -36.6%Aug 18, 2022
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$67$52.1 -29.3%Aug 18, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$58$45.11 -38.8%May 13, 2022
UBSMark Carden$63$47.95 -33.5%Nov 11, 2021
Credit SuisseLauren Silberman$70$47.95 -26.1%Nov 11, 2021
BMO CapitalKelly Bania$61$45.31 -35.6%Sep 17, 2021
GuggenheimJohn Heinbockel$65$48.83 -31.4%Jun 21, 2021
Wolfe ResearchGreg Badishkanian$62$53.94 -34.5%May 10, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. The company offers beef, pork, poultry, and seafood; frozen food and refrigerated products; dry groceries comprising cleaning and kitchen supplies and disposables; candy, snacks, and beverages; and fresh products, groceries, dairy, bread, beverages, general merchandise, and health and beauty care products, as well as cigarettes and other nicotine products.…

Historical context

All PFGC earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-22T00:04:22.296664+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T03:20:43.638484+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T03:20:43.635670+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.