Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated · PEG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

PSEG raises 2026 guidance as capex and nuclear execution support growth

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional outlook: raised guidance, regulated rate-base investment, nuclear performance, and large-load demand provide support, while regulation, financing costs, market prices, and execution constrain visibility.

Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities $33.73B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.72 Consensus $0.71
EPS surprise +1.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.92B Consensus $2.68B
Revenue surprise +8.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.1% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +0.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.2% Up to 20 sessions
PEGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from a stable capex outlook and a raised prior-period outlook to increasing capex, raised 2026 guidance, and a reaffirmed 6%-8% long-term CAGR target. The current analysis also highlights 95% hedging of 2026 generation output and a five-year LIPA contract extension through 2030.

Guidance delta

Management raised 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $4.28-$4.40 per share and reaffirmed a 6%-8% long-term CAGR target through 2030.

Key takeaways

  • Management raised 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $4.28-$4.40 per share.
  • The company plans $22.5-$25.5 billion of regulated capital spending from 2026 through 2030 without equity issuance.
  • Nuclear operations, rate-base expansion, and data-center demand remain central growth drivers.
  • Regulatory and legislative outcomes, interest rates, commodity prices, and severe weather remain key risks.

Management priorities

  • Execute the five-year regulated capital investment plan.
  • Advance natural-gas and nuclear procurement initiatives and related regulatory engagement.
  • Continue solar, battery-storage, and energy-efficiency projects.
  • Maintain nuclear operating performance and pursue SMR site-readiness opportunities.
  • Extend strategic partnerships, including the LIPA relationship.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PEG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $2B Q2 '24 actual $2B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2B Q3 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $3B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $4B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '27 estimate $4B
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold31 ratings
Bullish1548.4%
Neutral1548.4%
Bearish13.2%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$67.34Current
$70Low
$86.33Average
$98High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 18, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainAug 13, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 5, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 5, 2026
Jefferies Hold HoldMaintainJul 20, 2026
Show 27 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $67.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$86$66.9 +27.7%Sep 29, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$88$70.16 +30.7%Sep 18, 2026
Morgan StanleyDavid Arcaro$91$74.19 +35.1%Aug 21, 2026
Truist FinancialRichard Sunderland$84$75.98 +24.7%Aug 13, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$93$78.84 +38.1%Jul 22, 2026
See 35 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PSEG) is an energy provider primarily operating through its subsidiaries in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. The company's business activities are structured into two primary segments: PSE&G and PSEG Power. The PSE&G division is responsible for transmitting electricity and distributing both electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This segment also commits resources to solar power generation projects and various energy efficiency initiatives, as well as offering appliance service and repair.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T00:06:06.074991+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T00:06:06.072103+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.