PG&E Corporation · PCG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

PG&E: Higher guidance, data-center growth, and wildfire risks

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating trajectory for PG&E: higher guidance, resilient electrification and data-center demand, and ongoing efficiency gains are balanced by wildfire exposure, regulatory dependence, financing costs, and execution risk.

Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities $33.85B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.30
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $7.11B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -1.1% Event window
SPY move +1.1% Same window
Abnormal move -2.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 0.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +5.9% Up to 20 sessions
PCGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management's supplied analysis continued to describe raised guidance and an unchanged $63 billion capital plan, while emphasizing a 5.5 GW data-center application pipeline, Rule 30, upcoming regulatory filings, and continued wildfire-mitigation work.

Guidance delta

Management's supplied analysis says 2025 EPS guidance was increased, while the $63 billion capital plan remained unchanged.

Key takeaways

  • Management's analysis highlights 2024 core EPS growth and an increase to 2025 EPS guidance.
  • The five-year $63 billion capital plan was reaffirmed, with possible incremental investment tied to beneficial load growth.
  • Data-center demand, O&M efficiency, and wildfire mitigation support the outlook, while regulation and financing remain key risks.

Management priorities

  • Advance the General Rate Case and 2026 cost-of-capital filing.
  • Pursue undergrounding, transmission upgrades, and Rule 30 funding for large-load projects.
  • Continue O&M savings, wildfire mitigation, and the stated dividend-growth plan.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PCG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.30 Q2 '24 actual $0.31, match Q3 '24 estimate $0.33 Q3 '24 actual $0.37, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.32 Q2 '25 actual $0.31, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.42 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.36 Q4 '25 actual $0.36, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.40 Q1 '26 actual $0.43, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.36 Q2 '26 actual $0.40, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.41 Q3 '26 actual $0.41, match Q4 '26 estimate $0.40 Q1 '27 estimate $0.46 Q2 '27 estimate $0.41 Q3 '27 estimate $0.48
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold30 ratings
Bullish1240.0%
Neutral1756.7%
Bearish13.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$12.63Current
$13Low
$19.07Average
$25High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 23, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 21, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 12, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 12, 2026
UBS Neutral BuyDowngradeSep 23, 2026
Show 25 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $12.63. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$15.5$13.15 +22.7%Oct 22, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$20$13.15 +58.4%Oct 15, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$17$13.13 +34.6%Oct 12, 2026
UBSGregg Orrill$14$12.88 +10.8%Sep 22, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$18$13.33 +42.5%Sep 3, 2026
See 47 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

PG&E Corporation operates as a holding company, overseeing the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas to its clientele. The firm's expertise spans a broad range of energy-related services, including general utilities, power provision, gas supply, electrical grids, solar solutions, and sustainability initiatives. Established in 1995, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Oakland, California.

Historical context

All PCG earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-30T00:03:07.291072+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T10:40:44.738925+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T10:40:44.735168+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.