Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy19 ratings
Bullish1157.9%
Neutral842.1%
Bearish00.0%
Blue Owl Capital Inc. · OWL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Blue Owl’s 2025 growth broadens, while liquidity and credit risks remain
The supplied FY2025 Q4 analysis supports a growth case based on fundraising, product expansion and performance across strategies. That case is balanced by concerns around liquidity in non-traded vehicles, credit exposure to software and AI disruption, and the durability of fee-related earnings (FRE) margin expansion.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$16.15B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.24
Consensus $0.22
EPS surprise
+9.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$701.5M
Consensus $711.8M
Revenue surprise
-1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.6%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-15.0%
Up to 20 sessions
OWLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about OWL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did OWL fall 3.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in OWL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for OWL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management’s FY2025 Q4 discussion highlighted $56 billion of capital raised in 2025 and AUM above $300 billion, alongside traction in digital-infrastructure and wealth-channel products. The analysis also reports FRE margins above guidance and targets modest margin expansion and FRE per-share growth in 2026; these points extend the prior quarter’s emphasis on fundraising, digital infrastructure and product expansion.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management targeted modest FRE-margin expansion and FRE per-share growth in 2026; the supplied analysis does not identify a change to formal guidance.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis reports $56 billion of capital raised in 2025 and AUM above $300 billion.
- FRE margins of 58.3% exceeded guidance; modest margin expansion and FRE per-share growth were targeted for 2026.
- ODiT raised $1.7 billion in its first close, and the interval fund had more than $100 million of monthly inflows.
- Reported EPS was above consensus while revenue was below consensus, per the supplied scorecard.
Management priorities
- Launch digital infrastructure Fund IV later in 2026 and scale wealth-dedicated products and distribution.
- Continue raising and deploying capital across GP-led continuation and GP-stakes strategies.
- Maintain dividend growth while reducing the payout ratio toward the stated approximately 85% target.
- Pursue acquisitions to broaden alternative-credit and real-estate capabilities.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$10.33Previous close
$9Low
$15.32Average
$27High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 19, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 26, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2022 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $10.33. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $12 | $10.41 | +16.2% | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $8.95 | -3.2% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $9.6 | +64.6% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $10.3 | +16.2% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $10.5 | $10.3 | +1.6% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $11 | $9.32 | +6.5% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $9 | $9.28 | -12.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $9.1 | $9.06 | -11.9% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $9.5 | $9.42 | -8.0% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $10 | $9.75 | -3.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $10 | $10.44 | -3.2% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $11.18 | +16.2% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $12.45 | +35.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $11.63 | +35.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $15 | $11.63 | +45.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $11.63 | +45.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $15.86 | +64.6% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $15.86 | +161.4% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $16.5 | $15.5 | +59.7% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $15.78 | +74.2% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $15.52 | +93.6% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $16.25 | $15.87 | +57.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $18 | $16.56 | +74.2% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $16.67 | +93.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $19 | $15.71 | +83.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $15.86 | +142.0% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $19 | $15.86 | +83.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $22 | $16.51 | +113.0% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $21 | $16.11 | +103.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Chris Kotowski | $24 | $17.1 | +132.3% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Chris Kotowski | $21 | $16.26 | +103.3% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $21 | $18.31 | +103.3% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $23 | $19.34 | +122.7% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $22 | $19.38 | +113.0% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| UBS | Brennan Hawken | $22 | $18.57 | +113.0% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Steven Chubak | $22 | $18.24 | +113.0% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $19 | $11.65 | +83.9% | Sep 12, 2022 |
Track every rating change on OWL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationBlue Owl Capital Inc., an asset management firm based in New York City, leverages a robust and permanent capital base to deliver a comprehensive suite of financial solutions. It serves a diverse clientele, including mid-sized businesses, leading alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants. The company's offerings encompass direct lending products, providing private credit options such as diversified, technology-focused, first lien, and opportunistic financing for middle-market companies. Additionally, it offers GP capital solutions, extending financial backing to major private capital managers through services like minority equity investments, GP debt financing, and stakes in professional sports organizations. Blue Owl also provides real estate-focused products, primarily involving the structuring of sale-leaseback transactions, often featuring triple net leases. These diverse solutions are made available through permanent capital vehicles and long-term private investment funds.
Historical context
All OWL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| NWG NatWest Group plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | -9.0% | NatWest maintains guidance as Q3 growth and capital remain strong |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
| TPG TPG Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.3% | +7.5% | TPG raises FRE margin outlook as capital formation accelerates |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +2.9% | AJG: Q3 growth and AssuredPartners synergies support outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the OWL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T11:10:45.514071+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T11:10:45.511303+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.