On Holding AG · ONON · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

On Holding pairs D2C momentum with an upbeat FY2025 outlook

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: strong D2C momentum, product launches, apparel expansion, and APAC growth underpin management's FY2025 outlook, while demand durability, execution, macro conditions, and competition remain the key tests.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $10.71B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.20
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $593.6M
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.8% Event window
SPY move -1.2% Same window
Abnormal move +7.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -15.7% Up to 20 sessions
ONONSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about ONON FY2024 Q4

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis moves the story from Q3 momentum and raised FY2024 guidance to a FY2025 plan centered on broader D2C distribution, apparel above CHF 100 million, new products, additional flagship stores, and at least CHF 2.94 billion of revenue.

Guidance delta

Management's FY2025 outlook calls for revenue of at least CHF 2.94 billion, gross margin of about 60.5%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 17%-17.5%; the supplied analysis identifies the guidance sentiment as raised.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted FY2024 net sales of CHF 2.32 billion, 33% constant-currency growth, a 60.6% gross margin, and a 16.7% adjusted EBITDA margin.
  • D2C reached 48.8% of Q4 sales, supported by 19 new premium retail stores and distributor-led stores in Chile and Jakarta.
  • Apparel exceeded CHF 100 million in sales for the first time, with management targeting 10% of total revenue.
  • Cloud 6, Cloudboom Max, LightSpray, and geographic expansion—particularly in APAC—are central to the growth plan.

Management priorities

  • Scale D2C channels and premium retail.
  • Launch and expand Cloud 6, Cloudboom Max, and LightSpray products.
  • Open flagship stores in Tokyo, Chengdu, and Shenzhen and expand China's store base.
  • Grow apparel toward 10% of revenue through stronger e-commerce and retail integration.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ONON EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.11 Q4 '23 actual $-0.06, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.36, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.17 Q2 '24 actual $0.16, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.24 Q2 '25 actual $-0.11, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.33 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.26 Q4 '25 actual $0.31, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.34 Q1 '26 actual $0.47, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.42 Q2 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q4 '26 estimate $0.31 Q1 '27 estimate $0.41 Q2 '27 estimate $0.41
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish2074.1%
Neutral622.2%
Bearish13.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$32.51Previous close
$20Low
$47.33Average
$83High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 1, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 24, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 24, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 17, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 16, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 12, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 12, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 12, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 13, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainMay 13, 2026
Williams Trading Hold BuyDowngradeJan 9, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainNov 25, 2025
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainNov 13, 2025
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainNov 13, 2025
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainNov 13, 2025
BWG Global Mixed PositiveDowngradeOct 28, 2025
Jefferies Underperform HoldDowngradeAug 13, 2025
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeApr 28, 2025
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainMar 8, 2024
Redburn Atlantic Neutral BuyDowngradeMar 7, 2024
Williams Capital Hold SellUpgradeDec 22, 2021
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainDec 22, 2021
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $32.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$47$34.22 +44.6%Oct 21, 2026
KeyBancAshley Owens$37$29.62 +13.8%Sep 28, 2026
Piper SandlerAnna Andreeva$45$29.82 +38.4%Sep 24, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$33$30.16 +1.5%Sep 24, 2026
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$44$30.16 +35.3%Sep 24, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$43$27.15 +32.3%Sep 17, 2026
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$38$27.41 +16.9%Sep 14, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$42$26.85 +29.2%Sep 11, 2026
Morgan StanleyAlex Straton$39$26.84 +20.0%Sep 10, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$28$27.27 -13.9%Sep 8, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$28$27.27 -13.9%Sep 8, 2026
BernsteinAneesha Sherman$62$31.37 +90.7%Aug 12, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$42$30.91 +29.2%Aug 12, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$40$30.91 +23.0%Aug 12, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$55$30.91 +69.2%Aug 12, 2026
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$42$30.91 +29.2%Aug 12, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryCristina Fernandez$43$30.91 +32.3%Aug 12, 2026
Raymond JamesRick Patel$38$30.91 +16.9%Aug 12, 2026
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$40$30.91 +23.0%Aug 11, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$20$30.38 -38.5%Aug 11, 2026
Williams TradingSam Poser$32$30.91 -1.6%Aug 11, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$46$37.52 +41.5%Aug 7, 2026
UBSJay Sole$82$37.78 +152.2%Jul 29, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$83$37.89 +155.3%Jul 29, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryAnalyst unavailable$51$35.18 +56.9%May 13, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$46$33.83 +41.5%May 13, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$42$33.82 +29.2%May 12, 2026
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$48$33.84 +47.6%May 12, 2026
Raymond JamesStrong Buy$52$36.6 +60.0%Apr 23, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$45$32.39 +38.4%Mar 27, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryCristina Fernandez$60$32.11 +84.6%Mar 26, 2026
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$55$43.91 +69.2%Mar 3, 2026
Stifel NicolausPeter McGoldrick$58$43.91 +78.4%Mar 3, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$58$43.91 +78.4%Mar 3, 2026
NeedhamTom Nikic$52$46.65 +60.0%Feb 26, 2026
Stifel NicolausJim Duffy$60$45.51 +84.6%Jan 28, 2026
KeyBancAshley Owens$58$46.3 +78.4%Jan 22, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$59$45.05 +81.5%Jan 19, 2026
Williams TradingSam Poser$47$50.63 +44.6%Jan 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$85$46.78 +161.5%Dec 29, 2025
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$59$47.32 +81.5%Dec 9, 2025
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$60$40.79 +84.6%Nov 25, 2025
JefferiesRandal Konik$31$35.18 -4.6%Nov 12, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$60$34.8 +84.6%Nov 10, 2025
Piper SandlerAnna Andreeva$55$35.58 +69.2%Nov 6, 2025
BTIGJanine Stichter$70$36.46 +115.3%Nov 4, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$50$42.14 +53.8%Oct 27, 2025
Raymond JamesRick Patel$55$41.47 +69.2%Oct 21, 2025
UBSJay Sole$79$48.15 +143.0%Aug 13, 2025
JefferiesRandal Konik$40$49.81 +23.0%Aug 13, 2025
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$69$57.59 +112.2%May 14, 2025
UBSJay Sole$75$57.59 +130.7%May 14, 2025
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$68$51.31 +109.2%May 14, 2025
NeedhamTom Nikic$62$57.38 +90.7%May 13, 2025
UBSJay Sole$59$46.59 +81.5%Apr 28, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$73$52.48 +124.5%Mar 5, 2025
Raymond JamesRick Patel$63$56.19 +93.8%Nov 21, 2024
BTIGJanine Stichter$64$52.62 +96.9%Nov 12, 2024
Goldman SachsRichard Edwards$57$52.62 +75.3%Nov 12, 2024
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$61$52.62 +87.6%Nov 12, 2024
Williams TradingSam Poser$40$47.58 +23.0%Nov 6, 2024
Piper SandlerAnna Andreeva$56$49.18 +72.3%Oct 3, 2024
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$58$49.17 +78.4%Oct 3, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesAshley Wallace$55$50.48 +69.2%Sep 23, 2024
Stifel NicolausJim Duffy$59$49.25 +81.5%Sep 18, 2024
Piper SandlerAnna Andreeva$52$43.19 +60.0%Aug 22, 2024
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$51$40.56 +56.9%Aug 14, 2024
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$47$41.27 +44.6%Aug 14, 2024
Robert W. BairdJonathan Komp$50$41.61 +53.8%Aug 13, 2024
WedbushTom Nikic$48$42.4 +47.6%Aug 13, 2024
KeyBancAshley Owens$47$40.52 +44.6%Jul 24, 2024
BernsteinAneesha Sherman$50$42.73 +53.8%Jun 11, 2024
Telsey AdvisoryCristina Fernandez$47$42.2 +44.6%Jun 7, 2024
Truist FinancialJoseph Civello$46$40.23 +41.5%May 28, 2024
Goldman SachsRichard Edwards$41$36.42 +26.1%May 15, 2024
KeyBancAshley Owens$40$36.77 +23.0%May 15, 2024
Robert W. BairdJonathan Komp$46$36.3 +41.5%May 15, 2024
Telsey AdvisoryCristina Fernandez$40$36.3 +23.0%May 15, 2024
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$43$36.3 +32.3%May 15, 2024
Williams TradingSam Poser$33$36.3 +1.5%May 14, 2024
Stifel NicolausJim Duffy$41$36.3 +26.1%May 14, 2024
NeedhamAnna Andreeva$45$36.16 +38.4%May 14, 2024
Goldman SachsRichard Edwards$36$30.69 +10.7%May 14, 2024
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$38$35.38 +16.9%Apr 1, 2024
Piper SandlerAbbie Zvejnieks$39$35.61 +20.0%Mar 21, 2024
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$37$33.28 +13.8%Mar 13, 2024
WedbushTom Nikic$36$24.23 +10.7%Oct 5, 2023
NeedhamAnna Andreeva$40$29.9 +23.0%Sep 20, 2023
Telsey AdvisoryCristina Fernández$37$33.12 +13.8%May 11, 2023
Telsey AdvisoryCristina Fernández$30$18 -7.7%Dec 7, 2022
Morgan StanleyAlex Straton$26$18.61 -20.0%Nov 25, 2022
Goldman SachsRichard Edwards$28$16.93 -13.9%Nov 20, 2022
Stifel NicolausJim Duffy$31$23.98 -4.6%Aug 16, 2022
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$31$26 -4.6%Apr 19, 2022
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Historical context

All ONON earnings

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-20T12:55:22.487459+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T07:50:45.491282+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T07:50:45.488482+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.