On Holding AG · ONON · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

On Holding pairs D2C momentum with an upbeat FY2025 outlook

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: strong D2C momentum, product launches, apparel expansion, and APAC growth underpin management's FY2025 outlook, while demand durability, execution, macro conditions, and competition remain the key tests.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $10.71B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.20
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $593.6M
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.8% Event window
SPY move -1.2% Same window
Abnormal move +7.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -15.7% Up to 20 sessions
ONONSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis moves the story from Q3 momentum and raised FY2024 guidance to a FY2025 plan centered on broader D2C distribution, apparel above CHF 100 million, new products, additional flagship stores, and at least CHF 2.94 billion of revenue.

Guidance delta

Management's FY2025 outlook calls for revenue of at least CHF 2.94 billion, gross margin of about 60.5%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 17%-17.5%; the supplied analysis identifies the guidance sentiment as raised.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted FY2024 net sales of CHF 2.32 billion, 33% constant-currency growth, a 60.6% gross margin, and a 16.7% adjusted EBITDA margin.
  • D2C reached 48.8% of Q4 sales, supported by 19 new premium retail stores and distributor-led stores in Chile and Jakarta.
  • Apparel exceeded CHF 100 million in sales for the first time, with management targeting 10% of total revenue.
  • Cloud 6, Cloudboom Max, LightSpray, and geographic expansion—particularly in APAC—are central to the growth plan.

Management priorities

  • Scale D2C channels and premium retail.
  • Launch and expand Cloud 6, Cloudboom Max, and LightSpray products.
  • Open flagship stores in Tokyo, Chengdu, and Shenzhen and expand China's store base.
  • Grow apparel toward 10% of revenue through stronger e-commerce and retail integration.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ONON EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.11 Q4 '23 actual $-0.06, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.36, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.17 Q2 '24 actual $0.16, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.24 Q2 '25 actual $-0.11, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.33 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.26 Q4 '25 actual $0.31, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.34 Q1 '26 actual $0.47, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.42 Q2 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q4 '26 estimate $0.31 Q1 '27 estimate $0.41 Q2 '27 estimate $0.41
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish2074.1%
Neutral622.2%
Bearish13.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$32.51Previous close
$20Low
$47.33Average
$83High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 1, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 24, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 24, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
Show 22 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $32.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$47$34.22 +44.6%Oct 21, 2026
KeyBancAshley Owens$37$29.62 +13.8%Sep 28, 2026
Piper SandlerAnna Andreeva$45$29.82 +38.4%Sep 24, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$33$30.16 +1.5%Sep 24, 2026
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$44$30.16 +35.3%Sep 24, 2026
See 89 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Historical context

All ONON earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-20T12:55:22.487459+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T07:50:45.491282+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T07:50:45.488482+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.