ONEOK, Inc. · OKE · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

ONEOK: Acquisition synergies and infrastructure projects drive growth outlook

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: acquisition synergies, basin volumes and infrastructure expansion could sustain earnings growth, while execution, leverage, utilization and demand determine how much of the outlook is realized.

Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy $58.70B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.46
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $6.73B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.4% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -1.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.9% Up to 20 sessions
OKESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shifts emphasis toward a larger capital program and a new MPLX LPG export-dock joint venture, while maintaining guidance and highlighting incremental acquisition synergies and a 2026 growth outlook.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance, with 2025 targets of 8% EPS growth and 21% adjusted EBITDA growth; the analysis also cites a 2026 outlook for more than 15% EPS growth and roughly 10% adjusted EBITDA growth.

Key takeaways

  • Management tied the outlook to acquisition synergies, volume growth and new infrastructure.
  • The analysis cites incremental synergies above the original target from EnLink, Medallion, Magellan and Easton assets.
  • Planned projects include an LPG export dock with MPLX, pipeline expansions and storage growth.
  • The main counterweights are execution, leverage, utilization and demand risk.

Management priorities

  • Advance the 400,000-barrel-per-day LPG export dock joint venture with MPLX.
  • Expand Denver refined-products pipeline capacity and NGL infrastructure.
  • Integrate acquired assets and continue realizing synergies.
  • Pursue organic growth projects and evaluate strategic M&A.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
OKE REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $6B Q4 '23 actual $5B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $6B Q1 '24 actual $5B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $6B Q2 '24 actual $5B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $6B Q3 '24 actual $5B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $8B Q2 '25 actual $8B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $9B Q3 '25 actual $9B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $9B Q4 '25 actual $9B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $8B Q1 '26 actual $10B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $9B Q2 '26 actual $12B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $11B Q4 '26 estimate $10B Q1 '27 estimate $10B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish1744.7%
Neutral2155.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$93.68Current
$57Low
$87.65Average
$112High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainOct 21, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 6, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 11, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 9, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $93.68. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
RBC CapitalElvira Scotto$96$93.1 +2.5%Oct 21, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$98$93.08 +4.6%Oct 20, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$96$91.07 +2.5%Oct 15, 2026
JefferiesJulien Dumoulin-Smith$94$92.02 +0.3%Oct 13, 2026
Stifel NicolausRobert Hodges$100$90.29 +6.7%Oct 9, 2026
See 61 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

ONEOK, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, functions as a leading energy infrastructure company within the United States. Its primary focus is the comprehensive management of natural gas, encompassing gathering, processing, storage, and transportation. These operations are structured into three distinct segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), and Natural Gas Pipelines. The company owns an extensive system of natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, predominantly situated in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain regions. Furthermore, ONEOK manages both federally (FERC) and state-regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines, alongside crucial natural gas storage facilities. A significant component of ONEOK's business is dedicated to Natural Gas Liquids. The company handles the entire NGL value chain, from collecting, treating, and fractionating to transporting, storing, marketing, and distributing these products.…

Historical context

All OKE earnings

Energy peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +9.2% +1.2% KMI Q3: Record backlog expands long-term gas infrastructure runway

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-10T00:02:09.030919+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T14:40:47.546782+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T14:40:47.543930+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.