Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy6 ratings
Bullish466.7%
Neutral116.7%
Bearish116.6%
NatWest Group plc · NWG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
NatWest pairs strong 2025 results with ambitious 2028 targets
NatWest's reported 2025 performance and capital generation, alongside its maintained 2026 guidance and 2028 targets, support a constructive execution case. Delivery depends on sustaining cost discipline, achieving organic balance growth, realizing Evelyn Partners synergies and managing interest-rate, regulatory and integration risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$30.63B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.46
Consensus $0.38
EPS surprise
+21.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.89B
Consensus $5.68B
Revenue surprise
+3.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.2%
Up to 20 sessions
NWGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NWG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NWG fall 1.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NWG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NWG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The full-year update follows a strong Q3 2025: management reported 2025 operating profit of £7.7bn, ROE of 19.2%, and 1 million new customers, and described the Evelyn Partners acquisition and 2028 targets. The call analysis says 2025 results beat guidance; management maintained 2026 income guidance and set out the longer-term operating framework.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management set 2026 income guidance, excluding Evelyn Partners, at £17.2–£17.6bn, with stable cost growth expected, and reiterated 2028 targets including >4% CAL growth, cost-income ratio below 45%, >200bps capital generation and RoTE above 18%.
Key takeaways
- 2025 operating profit was £7.7bn and ROE was 19.2%; management said full-year results beat guidance.
- Evelyn Partners adds £69bn of AUMA; management expects approximately £700m of incremental income and £100m of cost synergies by year three.
- The 2028 framework combines >4% CAL growth with a cost-income ratio below 45%, >200bps capital generation and RoTE above 18%.
- Management cited a structural-hedge income contribution of approximately £1.5bn in 2026; hedge assumptions remain an investor question.
Management priorities
- Integrate Evelyn Partners and realize the planned revenue and cost synergies.
- Deliver the 2028 growth, efficiency, capital-generation and return targets.
- Expand AI and digital banking capabilities while simplifying legacy systems.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$15.85Current
$18.2Low
$18.2Average
$18.2High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 21, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 20, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Conviction Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $15.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | Guy Stebbings | $18.2 | $15.83 | +14.9% | May 11, 2026 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNatWest Group plc is a leading financial institution that delivers a broad spectrum of banking and financial services to individual customers, businesses, corporations, and institutional clients across the United Kingdom and globally. The company's operations are divided into several key divisions: Retail Banking addresses consumer needs by providing essential banking products like current accounts, home mortgages, unsecured personal loans, and savings options, alongside extensive mobile and online banking capabilities. Commercial Banking offers bespoke banking and financing solutions, supporting entities ranging from new start-ups and small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to larger commercial and corporate organizations.…
Historical context
All NWG earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNYFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+30.8% EPS+2.8% move
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T15:10:45.568075+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T15:10:45.565319+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.