NVIDIA Corporation · NVDA · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

NVIDIA: Blackwell momentum offsets China export-control headwinds

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: Blackwell adoption, inference demand and expanding AI infrastructure remain strong growth drivers, while China restrictions, execution capacity and demand durability are material offsets.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $5751.76B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.88
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $43.05B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +3.2% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move +2.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +13.3% Up to 20 sessions
NVDASPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NVDA FY2026 Q1

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove NVDA's +3.2% move after FY2026 Q1 earnings?What changed in NVDA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for NVDA after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis adds a larger China-related headwind and inventory charge while showing continued Blackwell scaling, new GB300 and enterprise products, and broader sovereign AI deployments.

Guidance delta

Management maintained Q2 revenue guidance around $45 billion despite an approximately $8 billion China revenue headwind from export controls.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes record Q1 FY2026 revenue of $44 billion, with data-center revenue up 73% year over year.
  • Blackwell represented roughly 70% of data-center compute revenue in the supplied analysis, while GB300, RTX Pro and DGX products broaden the platform.
  • The main counterweight is China: H20 restrictions created a material revenue gap and a $4.5 billion inventory write-down.
  • Management highlighted expanding AI-factory deployments and sovereign AI projects across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Taiwan and Europe.

Management priorities

  • Ship GB300 and expand the Blackwell product family.
  • Scale AI-factory deployments and sovereign AI infrastructure projects.
  • Broaden enterprise adoption through RTX Pro, DGX Spark and DGX Station.
  • Expand networking through NVLink Fusion and Spectrum X.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NVDA REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $20B Q4 '24 actual $22B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $25B Q1 '25 actual $26B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $29B Q2 '25 actual $30B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $46B Q2 '26 actual $47B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $55B Q3 '26 actual $57B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $66B Q4 '26 actual $68B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $78B Q1 '27 actual $82B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $92B Q2 '27 actual $96B, beat Q3 '27 estimate $109B Q4 '27 estimate $124B Q1 '28 estimate $143B Q2 '28 estimate $162B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy77 ratings
Bullish6077.9%
Neutral1418.2%
Bearish33.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$229.28Current
$13.3Low
$223.22Average
$515High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 1, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainSep 29, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Show 73 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $229.28. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BNP ParibasAnalyst unavailable$345$237.11 +50.5%Oct 5, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$210$230.86 -8.4%Oct 2, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$300$223.67 +30.8%Sep 9, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$346$225.98 +50.9%Aug 27, 2026
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$300$225.64 +30.8%Aug 27, 2026
See 308 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms.…

Historical context

All NVDA earnings
+8.7%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.8%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-5.5%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
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ACN Accenture plc FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.5% +15.8% Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks
JBL Jabil Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.1% -10.0% Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks
MU Micron Technology, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.4% +0.0% Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-14T00:02:31.936144+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T19:10:47.831439+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T19:10:47.828839+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.