NVIDIA Corporation · NVDA · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

NVIDIA: Blackwell demand strong, but ramp risks remain

The call supports a constructive demand narrative: management linked Blackwell strength to expanding inference, reasoning and physical-AI workloads. The evidence is less conclusive on near-term earnings quality because the ramp pressured gross margins and the supplied event data lacks reported-versus-consensus results; export controls and execution remain material counterweights.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $5507.33B market cap
70quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.84
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $38.13B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.5% Event window
SPY move -1.6% Same window
Abnormal move -6.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.3% Up to 20 sessions
NVDASPY benchmark

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What drove NVDA's -8.5% move after FY2025 Q4 earnings?What changed in NVDA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NVDA after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The quarter’s analysis highlighted Blackwell’s faster-than-expected ramp, including $11 billion of revenue in one quarter, alongside a temporary gross-margin trough. Management added emphasis on reasoning AI, physical AI through Cosmos, and upcoming Blackwell Ultra and RTX 50-series launches while maintaining guidance.

Guidance delta

Management maintained Q1 FY26 revenue guidance of $43 billion, plus or minus 2%, with sequential growth expected in data center and gaming.

Key takeaways

  • Management described record Q4 revenue and strong data-center growth, led by Blackwell.
  • Blackwell generated $11 billion of revenue in its first quarter and exceeded expectations.
  • Management said gross margins were temporarily pressured during the ramp and expected recovery toward the mid-70s by year-end.
  • The call emphasized continued demand from inference, reasoning workloads, hyperscalers, enterprises, automotive and physical AI.
  • Gaming revenue declined, while RTX 50-series launches remained a near-term product focus.

Management priorities

  • Scale Blackwell and prepare Blackwell Ultra and the Vera Rubin architecture.
  • Expand AI factories, inference and physical-AI platforms, including Cosmos.
  • Broaden automotive, robotics and DRIVE adoption.
  • Launch and scale the GeForce RTX 50 series.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NVDA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $0.46 Q4 '24 actual $0.52, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.56 Q1 '25 actual $0.61, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.64 Q2 '25 actual $0.68, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.01 Q2 '26 actual $1.05, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.26 Q3 '26 actual $1.30, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.54 Q4 '26 actual $1.62, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.76 Q1 '27 actual $1.87, beat Q2 '27 estimate $2.09 Q2 '27 actual $2.22, beat Q3 '27 estimate $2.47 Q4 '27 estimate $2.73 Q1 '28 estimate $3.17 Q2 '28 estimate $3.64
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy77 ratings
Bullish6077.9%
Neutral1418.2%
Bearish33.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$228.52Previous close
$13.3Low
$223.22Average
$515High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 1, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainSep 29, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Show 73 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $228.52. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BNP ParibasAnalyst unavailable$345$237.11 +51.0%Oct 5, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$210$230.86 -8.1%Oct 2, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$300$223.67 +31.3%Sep 9, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$346$225.98 +51.4%Aug 27, 2026
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$300$225.64 +31.3%Aug 27, 2026
See 308 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms.…

Historical context

All NVDA earnings
+8.7%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.8%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-5.5%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ACN Accenture plc FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.5% +15.8% Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks
JBL Jabil Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.1% -10.0% Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks
MU Micron Technology, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.4% +0.0% Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-12T00:00:51.428704+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T06:10:43.575963+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T06:10:43.573207+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.