Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish1970.4%
Neutral725.9%
Bearish13.7%
NRG Energy, Inc. · NRG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
NRG Reaffirms 2026 Guidance as BYOP Project Adds a New Growth Engine
NRG’s Q2 results strengthened the near-term operating picture, while the Texas BYOP project creates a potentially significant long-term growth platform. The thesis depends on executing the project, securing favorable economics, and managing the larger capital program without weakening balance-sheet flexibility.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$21.79B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.49
Consensus $1.69
EPS surprise
-11.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.48B
Consensus $7.31B
Revenue surprise
+2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-15.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-17.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
6.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.4%
Up to 20 sessions
NRGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NRG FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NRG fall 15.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in NRG's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for NRG after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, NRG introduced a 1.2 GW Texas BYOP project with a projected $500 million of annual adjusted EBITDA and $375 million of free cash flow before growth. Capital spending now includes $721 million for data-center build-out, and management highlighted additional turbine capacity secured through 2032.
Guidance delta
2026 guidance was maintained. Management said first-half results were affected by softer ERCOT prices and RGGI costs but remained within range.
Key takeaways
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased 34% year over year to $1.2 billion, supported by the LS Power acquisition and higher PJM capacity values.
- NRG introduced a 1.2 GW Texas BYOP project for a global cloud and AI hyperscaler, targeting late-2029 commercial operation.
- The company plans $3.2 billion of capital spending, including $721 million for data-center build-out, while maintaining at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases.
Management priorities
- Complete the Texas BYOP project and evaluate expansion to 2.4 GW.
- Pursue additional PJM capacity upgrades and bilateral opportunities.
- Maintain disciplined capital allocation while exploring financing or partnership structures.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$102.75Current
$46Low
$181.55Average
$221High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2022 |
| CFRA | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 7, 2020 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 27, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 20, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 7, 2015 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2013 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $102.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $117.96 | +115.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $120.73 | +108.3% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $119.91 | +105.4% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Nicholas Amicucci | $195 | $118.77 | +89.8% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $131.33 | +110.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $131.04 | +106.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $136.5 | +98.5% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $137.9 | +103.4% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $137.84 | +120.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Gabriele Sorbara | $184 | $136.7 | +79.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $165 | $141.72 | +60.6% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $135.87 | +57.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $154.17 | +54.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $160.28 | +104.4% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $151.67 | +49.9% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $197 | $160.46 | +91.7% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $177.33 | +119.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $173.32 | +48.9% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $153 | +76.2% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $206 | $152.05 | +100.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $164.11 | +105.4% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $167.49 | +40.1% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $202 | $172.59 | +96.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $159.5 | +41.1% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $198 | $168.74 | +92.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $202 | $162.61 | +96.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $197 | $153.32 | +91.7% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $167 | $150.61 | +62.5% | May 14, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $94 | $88.73 | -8.5% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $90 | $91.22 | -12.4% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $78 | $79.8 | -24.1% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $83 | $85.62 | -19.2% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $32.18 | -64.0% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $33.14 | -58.2% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $34.68 | -70.8% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $38.53 | -55.2% | Aug 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Byrd | $46 | $41.19 | -55.2% | May 9, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale sectors. Their energy generation capabilities are diverse, drawing from natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage technologies.…
Historical context
All NRG earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Get the NRG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T21:11:49.488835+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T22:40:50.844538+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T22:40:50.841710+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.