Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish1970.4%
Neutral725.9%
Bearish13.7%
NRG Energy, Inc. · NRG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
NRG maintains 2026 outlook after record 2025 results
NRG's record 2025 performance and maintained 2026 outlook support a constructive operating thesis, but delivery depends on converting data-center demand and VPP expansion into contracts and cash flow while executing the LS Power integration.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$20.50B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.03
Consensus $0.97
EPS surprise
+6.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.76B
Consensus $6.68B
Revenue surprise
+16.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+4.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-17.9%
Up to 20 sessions
NRGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NRG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NRG rise 4.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NRG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NRG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The LS Power acquisition is now closed, and management is operating with a larger generation fleet. The emphasis shifted toward integrating those assets and converting data-center, VPP and demand-response opportunities into the next phase of growth.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2026 guidance and reiterated its long-term growth framework.
Key takeaways
- Management described record 2025 results and said performance exceeded the high end of raised guidance.
- The LS Power acquisition closed, expanding the generation fleet to 25 GW and increasing the natural-gas weighting.
- Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.90, adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.575 billion and free cash flow guidance of $3.05 billion.
- Data-center contracts, VPP and demand response are central to the growth plan, while capital allocation includes shareholder returns, growth capex and debt paydown.
Management priorities
- Integrate the LS Power portfolio and upgrade generation assets.
- Pursue more than 6 GW of long-term data-center contracts.
- Expand VPP and demand-response programs across Texas and eastern markets.
- Advance Texas Energy Fund projects and build out battery storage in ERCOT.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$97.17Previous close
$46Low
$181.55Average
$221High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2022 |
| CFRA | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 7, 2020 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 27, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 20, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 7, 2015 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2013 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $97.17. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $117.96 | +127.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $120.73 | +120.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $119.91 | +117.1% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Nicholas Amicucci | $195 | $118.77 | +100.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $131.33 | +122.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $131.04 | +118.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $136.5 | +109.9% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $137.9 | +115.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $137.84 | +132.6% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Gabriele Sorbara | $184 | $136.7 | +89.4% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $165 | $141.72 | +69.8% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $135.87 | +66.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $154.17 | +63.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $160.28 | +116.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $151.67 | +58.5% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $197 | $160.46 | +102.7% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $177.33 | +131.6% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $173.32 | +57.5% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $153 | +86.3% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $206 | $152.05 | +112.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $164.11 | +117.1% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $167.49 | +48.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $202 | $172.59 | +107.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $159.5 | +49.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $198 | $168.74 | +103.8% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $202 | $162.61 | +107.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $197 | $153.32 | +102.7% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $167 | $150.61 | +71.9% | May 14, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $94 | $88.73 | -3.3% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $90 | $91.22 | -7.4% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $78 | $79.8 | -19.7% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $83 | $85.62 | -14.6% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $32.18 | -61.9% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $33.14 | -55.7% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $34.68 | -69.1% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $38.53 | -52.7% | Aug 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Byrd | $46 | $41.19 | -52.7% | May 9, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale sectors. Their energy generation capabilities are diverse, drawing from natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage technologies.…
Historical context
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T09:16:13.573166+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T09:16:13.570098+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.