Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish1866.7%
Neutral725.9%
Bearish27.4%
NRG Energy, Inc. · NRG · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
NRG Energy Q1 2026: EPS Miss on Mild Weather, Revenue Beat as LS Power Integration Begins
NRG Energy entered FY2026 with a transformed portfolio after closing the LS Power acquisition, doubling its generation fleet to 25 GW and shifting to over 75% natural gas. Q1 results reflected transitional friction: mild Texas weather and higher supply costs produced a 16% EPS miss, yet revenue beat consensus by 22% and adjusted EBITDA stayed above $1 billion. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, underscoring confidence in AI-driven data-center power demand, the Texas Energy Fund buildout, and disciplined capital return. The market was unpersuaded in the near term—the stock fell 5.7% on an abnormal basis the session of the report and drifted 11.5% lower subsequently—suggesting investors are weighing weather-driven softness and integration risk against the longer-term contracted-growth narrative.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$26.21B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationNRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale sectors. Their energy generation capabilities are diverse, drawing from natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage technologies.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.48
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
-16.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.29B
Consensus $8.43B
Revenue surprise
+22.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$133.2Current
$46Low
$179.33Average
$226High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jan 21, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| UBS | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2022 |
| CFRA | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 7, 2020 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 27, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 20, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 7, 2015 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2013 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $133.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $131.33 | +62.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $131.04 | +59.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $136.5 | +53.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $137.9 | +56.9% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $137.84 | +69.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Gabriele Sorbara | $184 | $136.7 | +38.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $165 | $141.72 | +23.9% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $135.87 | +21.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $154.17 | +19.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $160.28 | +57.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $151.67 | +15.6% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $197 | $160.46 | +47.9% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $177.33 | +68.9% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $173.32 | +14.9% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $153 | +35.9% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $206 | $152.05 | +54.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $164.11 | +58.4% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $167.49 | +8.1% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $202 | $172.59 | +51.7% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $159.5 | +8.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $198 | $168.74 | +48.6% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $202 | $162.61 | +51.7% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $197 | $153.32 | +47.9% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $167 | $150.61 | +25.4% | May 14, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $94 | $88.73 | -29.4% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $90 | $91.22 | -32.4% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $78 | $79.8 | -41.4% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $83 | $85.62 | -37.7% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $32.18 | -72.2% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $33.14 | -67.7% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $34.68 | -77.5% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $38.53 | -65.5% | Aug 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Byrd | $46 | $41.19 | -65.5% | May 9, 2022 |
Track every rating change on NRG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-11.5%
Up to 20 sessions
NRGSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 was the first quarter reflecting NRG's post-LS-Power structure. Adjusted EPS of $1.48 missed the $1.77 estimate by 16.4%, attributed to mild Texas weather reducing load and higher supply costs compressing margins. Revenue of $10.29 billion exceeded the $8.43 billion consensus by 22.1%. Adjusted EBITDA held above $1 billion. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance (adjusted EPS $8.90, EBITDA $5.575 billion, FCF $3.05 billion) and maintained capital allocation priorities: $1.4 billion in shareholder returns, $310 million in growth capex, and $1 billion in debt repayment. The LS Power acquisition contributed only two months of Q1 earnings but is already being integrated. In April, NRG closed $3.5 billion in new financing, retiring $1.5 billion of senior notes and generating over $10 million in annual net interest savings. Texas Energy Fund projects (1.5 GW) remain on schedule, with the first unit (TH Wharton) expected online in May 2026.
Guidance delta
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance at adjusted EPS of $8.90, adjusted EBITDA of $5.575 billion, and free cash flow of $3.05 billion, unchanged from the prior quarter. The longer-term target of at least 14% annual adjusted EPS and free cash flow growth through 2030 was also maintained. Capex outlook was characterized as stable, with $310 million in growth investments planned for 2026.
Key takeaways
- Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.48 missed the $1.77 consensus by 16.4%, driven by mild Texas weather and higher supply costs; revenue of $10.29 billion beat estimates by 22.1%.
- Adjusted EBITDA remained above $1 billion despite headwinds, with management expressing confidence in meeting full-year targets.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed at adjusted EPS $8.90, EBITDA $5.575 billion, and free cash flow $3.05 billion.
- The LS Power acquisition contributed two months of Q1 earnings and is being integrated as a strategic growth driver; NRG also closed $3.5 billion in new financing in April, retiring $1.5 billion in senior notes for over $10 million in annual interest savings.
- Texas Energy Fund projects (1.5 GW) remain on schedule, with the first unit expected online in May 2026 and remaining projects by 2028.
- The stock declined 5.7% on an abnormal basis following the report and drifted an additional 11.5% lower over subsequent weeks.
Management priorities
- Integrate LS Power assets and leverage expanded demand-response capabilities
- Commission the TH Wharton Texas Energy Fund project in May and bring remaining TEF projects online by 2028
- Pursue up-rates, upgrades, and conversions totaling approximately 2 GW, focusing on assets with contractual backing
- Target data-center and large-load contracts with long-duration cash flows
- Maintain disciplined capex at $310 million for 2026 growth investments
- Continue the share-repurchase program and execute $1 billion in debt repayments
Related earnings events
UtilitiesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T13:21:17.827707+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T13:21:17.824687+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.