Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NLY · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Annaly’s growth plan shifts further toward residential credit and MSR

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: management sees continued opportunity in housing finance, residential credit, and MSR, but the durability of returns depends on spreads, funding, policy, and dividend coverage.

Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate $13.57B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.74 Consensus $0.72
EPS surprise +2.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.06B Consensus $697.2M
Revenue surprise +52.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.0% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.2% Up to 20 sessions
NLYSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, the emphasis moved from broad portfolio expansion toward a more explicit capital-allocation shift into residential credit and MSR, while Agency MBS remained the anchor and the positive outlook was maintained.

Guidance delta

Management sentiment was maintained, with a positive outlook and no quantified guidance change supplied in the analysis.

Key takeaways

  • The current analysis describes strong performance across Agency MBS, residential credit, and MSR.
  • Management’s stated direction is to keep Agency MBS as the portfolio anchor while expanding residential credit and MSR.
  • The analysis highlights continued demand, spread conditions, and housing-finance activity as key operating supports.
  • The investment case remains dependent on funding, policy, valuation, and interest-rate conditions.

Management priorities

  • Increase capital allocation to residential credit and MSR.
  • Maintain Agency MBS as the core portfolio anchor.
  • Expand coupon MSR participation and related servicing capabilities.
  • Use capital-markets activity and partnerships to support portfolio growth.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NLY EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.66 Q2 '24 actual $0.68, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.67 Q3 '24 actual $0.66, match Q2 '25 estimate $0.72 Q2 '25 actual $0.73, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.72 Q3 '25 actual $0.73, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.72 Q4 '25 actual $0.74, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.74 Q1 '26 actual $0.76, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.75 Q2 '26 actual $0.79, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.77 Q3 '26 actual $0.80, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.77 Q1 '27 estimate $0.78 Q2 '27 estimate $0.78 Q3 '27 estimate $0.78
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy28 ratings
Bullish1657.1%
Neutral1035.7%
Bearish27.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$18.01Current
$21Low
$24.46Average
$34High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Jones Trading Buy BuyMaintainOct 21, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 9, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 24, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 23, 2026
Show 23 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $18.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$21$18.42 +16.6%Oct 6, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$24$22.59 +33.3%Jun 17, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$23$22.74 +27.7%Apr 24, 2026
RBC CapitalKenneth Lee$25$23.06 +38.8%Feb 5, 2026
BarclaysTerry Ma$24$24 +33.3%Jan 30, 2026
See 16 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates as a multifaceted financial firm, specializing in managing capital across various sectors. Its core business encompasses mortgage-related investments and lending to middle-market corporations. NLY strategically deploys capital across a diverse range of assets, including government-sponsored (Agency) and privately-issued (non-Agency) mortgage-backed securities, residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage servicing rights, credit risk transfer instruments, corporate debt, and other commercial real estate investments. Operating as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), Annaly benefits from a particular tax structure. This designation exempts it from federal corporate income tax, provided it distributes the majority of its taxable earnings to its investors. Established in 1996, the firm's corporate headquarters are located in New York City.

Historical context

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Real Estate peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T03:40:42.209243+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T03:40:42.206512+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.