Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NLY · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Annaly reports strong Q3 return while expanding agency MBS and MSR
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view of Annaly's housing-finance model: positive economic returns, agency MBS demand, residential-credit activity, and MSR expansion provide support, while rate volatility, funding, regulatory, and dividend-coverage risks remain material.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
event-close to next-session closeAsk FN2 about NLY FY2025 Q3
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the supplied prior-quarter analysis, Annaly's Q3 analysis points to a larger agency MBS portfolio, a new $1.1 billion equity raise, renewed preferred issuance, record residential-credit activity, MSR growth to $3.5 billion, and a PennyMac partnership. The positive-return streak extended from seven to eight quarters.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance sentiment; the supplied analysis does not identify a specific guidance increase or reduction.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes an 8.1% Q3 economic return and 11.5% year-to-date return, extending the positive-return streak to eight quarters.
- A $1.1 billion equity raise was deployed primarily into agency MBS, expanding the portfolio to $87 billion of market value.
- Residential Credit securitization activity remained strong, while the MSR portfolio grew to $3.5 billion and added a PennyMac partnership.
Management priorities
- Maintain overweight exposure to agency MBS while targeting a combined 40% weighting for Residential Credit and MSR.
- Continue capital raises, evaluate preferred issuance, and expand funding relationships and repo capacity.
- Scale low-note-rate MSR holdings through the PennyMac partnership while monitoring regulatory developments.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones Trading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette& Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2024 |
| JonesTrading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 14, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 23, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 12, 2015 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 5, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2014 |
| Portales Partners | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 8, 2014 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 11, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 12, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | May 3, 2013 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 7, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 13, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $18.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $18.42 | +16.6% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.59 | +33.3% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.74 | +27.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $25 | $23.06 | +38.8% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $24 | $24 | +33.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $25 | $23.84 | +38.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $25 | $23.33 | +38.8% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.77 | +27.7% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| BTIG | Eric Hagen | $25 | $22.77 | +38.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $23.5 | $22.7 | +30.5% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $22.5 | $20.6 | +24.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $20.76 | +11.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $23 | $22 | +27.7% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Kevin Heal | $21 | $19.01 | +16.6% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $23 | $20.8 | +27.7% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $20.5 | $20.09 | +13.8% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $21.5 | $18.88 | +19.4% | May 2, 2023 |
| JonesTrading | Jason Stewart | $22.5 | $21.39 | +24.9% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.44 | +55.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $25.54 | +44.4% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| KBW | Bose George | $34 | $32.36 | +88.8% | Oct 28, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates as a multifaceted financial firm, specializing in managing capital across various sectors. Its core business encompasses mortgage-related investments and lending to middle-market corporations. NLY strategically deploys capital across a diverse range of assets, including government-sponsored (Agency) and privately-issued (non-Agency) mortgage-backed securities, residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage servicing rights, credit risk transfer instruments, corporate debt, and other commercial real estate investments. Operating as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), Annaly benefits from a particular tax structure. This designation exempts it from federal corporate income tax, provided it distributes the majority of its taxable earnings to its investors. Established in 1996, the firm's corporate headquarters are located in New York City.
Historical context
All NLY earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCI Crown Castle Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -2.5% | -3.1% | Crown Castle raises 2026 guidance as transformation advances |
| ELS Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -4.4% | ELS Q3 2026: Guidance Held as Occupancy and Membership Trends Stay Firm |
| NLY-PF Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.6% | — | Annaly prioritizes residential credit amid rate volatility |
| NLY-PG Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.6% | — | Annaly prioritizes residential credit amid volatile fixed-income markets |
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNCZ: Q3 loss highlights rate volatility and hedging |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC Q3: Rate Volatility Drove a -12.7% Economic Return |
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T08:36:02.200231+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T08:36:02.197386+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.