Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NLY-PG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Annaly posts strong Q4, plans more credit and MSR exposure

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong recent returns, capital-market access, and growth in residential credit and MSR provide evidence of earnings resilience, while policy uncertainty, tight spreads, and market volatility are material counterweights.

Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate $13.62B market cap
75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.74 Consensus $0.73
EPS surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.06B Consensus $697.2M
Revenue surprise +52.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management highlighted a larger and more diversified platform, including a $93 billion agency portfolio, growth across residential credit and MSR, $560 million of Q4 ATM equity issuance, and a stated long-term target allocation of 50% agency, 30% residential credit, and 20% MSR.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained. Management expressed confidence in continued earnings power into 2026 and dividend sustainability, while noting policy and spread risks.

Key takeaways

  • Management analysis described an 8.6% Q4 economic return, more than 20% for the year, and 40% total shareholder return.
  • Capital-markets activity was robust, including $560 million of common equity raised through an ATM in Q4.
  • The agency portfolio reached $93 billion, while residential credit and MSR businesses also posted double-digit growth.
  • The strategy is shifting toward residential credit and MSR, with management citing a strong balance sheet and patience through market cycles.

Management priorities

  • Increase capital allocation to residential credit and MSR relative to agency assets
  • Continue opportunistic current-coupon MSR purchases and expand sub-servicing capabilities
  • Maintain participation across GSE platforms and grow the counterparties network

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NLY-PG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 actual $-0.02, None Q3 '24 actual $0.00, None Q2 '25 estimate $0.71 Q2 '25 actual $0.09, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.72 Q3 '25 actual $1.34, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.73 Q4 '25 actual $0.74, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.74 Q1 '26 actual $0.76, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.75 Q2 '26 actual $0.79, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.77 Q3 '26 actual $0.80, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.78 Q1 '27 estimate $0.78 Q2 '27 estimate $0.78 Q3 '27 estimate $0.78
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy12 ratings
Bullish975.0%
Neutral325.0%
Bearish00.0%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Buy NeutralUpgradeSep 17, 2023
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 31, 2023
Piper Sandler Overweight NeutralUpgradeMay 1, 2023
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainApr 27, 2023
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 27, 2023
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. operates as a comprehensive investment firm, concentrating its efforts on mortgage-related financial activities and providing loans to companies in the corporate middle market. The firm strategically allocates capital across a diverse range of assets. These include various mortgage-backed securities (both agency-backed residential and commercial), residential mortgage assets (including non-Agency types and direct loans), mortgage servicing rights, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debt instruments, and other commercial real estate investments. Notably, Annaly has adopted the tax classification of a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). This designation exempts the company from federal corporate income tax, provided it distributes a substantial portion of its taxable earnings to its shareholders. Founded in 1996, the company maintains its headquarters in New York, New York.

Historical context

All NLY-PG earnings

Real Estate peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +4.6% -2.5% CBRE: Infrastructure Growth Offsets Capital-Markets Headwinds
EGP EastGroup Properties, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — -0.9% EastGroup raises FFO outlook as development pipeline accelerates

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.