Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NLY-PG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Annaly posts strong Q4, plans more credit and MSR exposure
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong recent returns, capital-market access, and growth in residential credit and MSR provide evidence of earnings resilience, while policy uncertainty, tight spreads, and market volatility are material counterweights.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted a larger and more diversified platform, including a $93 billion agency portfolio, growth across residential credit and MSR, $560 million of Q4 ATM equity issuance, and a stated long-term target allocation of 50% agency, 30% residential credit, and 20% MSR.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained. Management expressed confidence in continued earnings power into 2026 and dividend sustainability, while noting policy and spread risks.
Key takeaways
- Management analysis described an 8.6% Q4 economic return, more than 20% for the year, and 40% total shareholder return.
- Capital-markets activity was robust, including $560 million of common equity raised through an ATM in Q4.
- The agency portfolio reached $93 billion, while residential credit and MSR businesses also posted double-digit growth.
- The strategy is shifting toward residential credit and MSR, with management citing a strong balance sheet and patience through market cycles.
Management priorities
- Increase capital allocation to residential credit and MSR relative to agency assets
- Continue opportunistic current-coupon MSR purchases and expand sub-servicing capabilities
- Maintain participation across GSE platforms and grow the counterparties network
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Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | May 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 20, 2023 |
| JonesTrading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 26, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2021 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2021 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
Track every rating change on NLY-PG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. operates as a comprehensive investment firm, concentrating its efforts on mortgage-related financial activities and providing loans to companies in the corporate middle market. The firm strategically allocates capital across a diverse range of assets. These include various mortgage-backed securities (both agency-backed residential and commercial), residential mortgage assets (including non-Agency types and direct loans), mortgage servicing rights, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debt instruments, and other commercial real estate investments. Notably, Annaly has adopted the tax classification of a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). This designation exempts the company from federal corporate income tax, provided it distributes a substantial portion of its taxable earnings to its shareholders. Founded in 1996, the company maintains its headquarters in New York, New York.
Historical context
All NLY-PG earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | -2.5% | CBRE: Infrastructure Growth Offsets Capital-Markets Headwinds |
| EGP EastGroup Properties, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -0.9% | EastGroup raises FFO outlook as development pipeline accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- LMTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+6.0% EPS+7.0% move
- NSCFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+4.6% EPS+3.1% move
- POOLFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+1.2% EPS+14.4% move
- UNPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+1.7% EPS+3.6% move
- PGFY2027 Q1 · October 22, 2026+6.4% EPS+5.6% move
- CMCSAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+8.5% EPS+3.4% move
Missed on EPS
- HBANPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS0.0% move
- PCGFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-0.8% EPS-1.3% move
- PHMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-4.5% EPS+5.8% move
- HBANLFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
- BCSFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-1.5% EPS-2.6% move
- SSBFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-4.2% EPS+2.4% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.