NIKE, Inc. · NKE · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026

Nike Q4 FY2026: Tariff Recovery Boosts EPS, But FY27 Revenue Guidance Cut

Nike's Q4 was boosted by a one-time $986M tariff recovery that drove a large EPS beat, but the core business remains in transition. Performance categories delivered mid single-digit growth and market-share gains, while sportswear and Jordan streetwear saw double-digit sell-through declines. Management lowered FY27 revenue guidance to a low-to-mid single-digit decline, though gross margin expansion is expected. Shares rose 5% on the print.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $63.71B market cap
100quality score

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers.…

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.72 Consensus $0
EPS surprise +554.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $10.97B Consensus $10.85B
Revenue surprise +1.1% Reported versus consensus

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NKE REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $12B Q2 '24 actual $13B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $12B Q3 '24 actual $12B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $13B Q4 '24 actual $13B, miss Q1 '25 estimate $12B Q1 '25 actual $12B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $11B Q4 '25 actual $11B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $11B Q1 '26 actual $12B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $12B Q2 '26 actual $12B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $11B Q3 '26 actual $11B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $11B Q4 '26 actual $11B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $11B Q2 '27 estimate $12B Q3 '27 estimate $11B Q4 '27 estimate $11B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold69 ratings
Bullish3449.3%
Neutral3043.5%
Bearish57.2%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$43.22Current
$35Low
$94.26Average
$192High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 1, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 1, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 1, 2026
Stifel Hold HoldMaintainJul 1, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 1, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainJul 1, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainJul 1, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 1, 2026
Show 62 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $43.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Berenberg BankNick Anderson$49$44.09 +13.4%Jul 3, 2026
UBSJay Sole$48$42.86 +11.1%Jul 1, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$75$42.54 +73.5%Jul 1, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$45$41.05 +4.1%Jul 1, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$40$41.05 -7.5%Jul 1, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$52$41.05 +20.3%Jul 1, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$45$41.05 +4.1%Jul 1, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryChristina Fernandez$47$41.05 +8.7%Jul 1, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$72$41.05 +66.6%Jul 1, 2026
GuggenheimSimon Siegel$60$41.05 +38.8%Jul 1, 2026
See 162 more

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Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +4.9% Event window
SPY move -0.1% Same window
Abnormal move +5.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -0.9% Up to 20 sessions
NKESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Revenue was flat YoY (down 1% reported, down 4% currency-neutral) at $10.97B, slightly above consensus. EPS of $0.72 crushed estimates, driven by a $986M tariff recovery benefit. Performance categories grew mid single digits with market-share gains in Western Europe. Wholesale rose 4% (10% in North America), including the first positive Foot Locker comp in over four years. Sportswear and Jordan streetwear sell-through remained down double digits. Shares jumped 5% on 3.1x volume.

Guidance delta

lowered

Key takeaways

  • Performance categories (running, football, training) delivered mid single-digit growth and market-share gains, supported by World Cup marketing momentum.
  • Sportswear and Jordan streetwear continue to face double-digit sell-through declines, prompting a product refresh with a dozen-plus new styles planned for FY27.
  • A one-time $986M tariff recovery benefit boosted gross margin and EPS, but management flagged potential incremental tariff rates of 10%-15% ahead.
  • Wholesale grew 4% overall with a 10% increase in North America, and Nike posted its first positive retail-sales comp with Foot Locker in over four years.
  • FY27 revenue guidance was lowered to a low-to-mid single-digit decline, though gross margin expansion is expected.

Management priorities

  • Launch more than a dozen new sportswear footwear styles in FY27 to reset the classic franchises.
  • Elevate 50% of Nike Direct owned stores by end of FY27.
  • Launch locally designed products in Greater China for Holiday '27 as part of the market reset.
  • Roll out the next wave of performance innovations (Aerofit, Pegasus 42 extensions) in spring '27.
  • Host an Investor Day in November to detail the next phase of the sport offense strategy.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-06-30T23:05:06.257855+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T16:42:01.570151+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T16:42:01.567469+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.