Netflix, Inc. · NFLX · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Netflix: Ads, live events and games broaden growth runway

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: advertising scale, live events, content, gaming and AI provide several growth avenues, while the durability of ad growth, execution of new formats and regulatory costs remain unresolved.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $281.07B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.59 Consensus $0.70
EPS surprise -15.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $11.51B Consensus $11.51B
Revenue surprise +0.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -10.1% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -9.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.5% Up to 20 sessions
NFLXSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NFLX FY2025 Q3

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Why did NFLX fall 10.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in NFLX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for NFLX after FY2025 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The supplied Q3 analysis emphasizes advertising momentum, live-event engagement, gaming and interactive formats, and broader AI use as growth initiatives. It also identifies a Brazilian tax expense as a one-time operating-income headwind and notes that 2026 guidance was maintained without specific figures.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its existing 2026 guidance; no specific revenue or operating-income figures were provided in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 performance was described as solid, with advertising revenue more than doubling year over year.
  • Higher upfront commitments and programmatic demand are supporting the advertising expansion.
  • Live events and a broader content slate remain central to engagement and subscriber-acquisition efforts.
  • Gaming, interactive formats and AI extend Netflix’s product and monetization initiatives.
  • A Brazilian tax expense pressured operating income and was characterized as a one-time item.

Management priorities

  • Scale advertising through additional demand sources and improved ad formats.
  • Expand live events, original content and interactive entertainment.
  • Develop TV-based games and additional gaming experiences.
  • Apply AI and machine learning to production, advertising and product experiences.
  • Continue global expansion across the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan and other markets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NFLX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $9B Q4 '23 actual $9B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $9B Q1 '24 actual $9B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $10B Q2 '24 actual $10B, match Q2 '25 estimate $11B Q2 '25 actual $11B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $12B Q3 '25 actual $12B, match Q4 '25 estimate $12B Q4 '25 actual $12B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $12B Q1 '26 actual $12B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $13B Q2 '26 actual $13B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $13B Q4 '26 estimate $14B Q1 '27 estimate $14B Q2 '27 estimate $14B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy98 ratings
Bullish6263.3%
Neutral2828.6%
Bearish88.1%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$67.5Previous close
$30.5Low
$105.21Average
$300High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainOct 1, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy HoldUpgradeSep 29, 2026
HSBC Hold BuyDowngradeSep 22, 2026
Wells Fargo Underweight Equal WeightDowngradeSep 18, 2026
Show 94 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $67.5. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimMichael Morris$80$68.18 +18.5%Oct 1, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$95$69.23 +40.7%Sep 29, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$57$75.31 -15.6%Sep 18, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$110$77.4 +63.0%Sep 14, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$90$68.67 +33.3%Jul 22, 2026
See 282 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Historical context

All NFLX earnings
-7.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-9.7%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-2.2%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Beat on EPS

Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T08:40:42.776667+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T08:40:42.772918+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.