Netflix, Inc. · NFLX · FY2024 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2024

Netflix raises margin outlook as ads, international growth and live content scale

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: revenue growth, international demand and new monetization channels can support the business, while ads, paid sharing, live content and gaming still need to scale without weakening cash flow or engagement.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $290.85B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.88 Consensus $4.74
EPS surprise +3.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $9.53B Consensus $9.53B
Revenue surprise -0.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.5% Event window
SPY move -0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.4% Up to 20 sessions
NFLXSPY benchmark

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Why did NFLX fall 1.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q2?What changed in NFLX's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for NFLX after FY2024 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management raised full-year operating margin guidance to 26% and emphasized stronger international growth, particularly in India. The current analysis also places greater weight on live events, gaming, AI-enabled discovery and proprietary ad technology, while execution risks around ads, churn, foreign exchange and free cash flow remain.

Guidance delta

Raised full-year operating margin guidance to 26%; the supplied analysis does not specify a revised full-year revenue figure.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue growth and margin expansion supported a higher full-year margin target.
  • International growth, especially in India, remains a notable source of member additions and revenue.
  • The ads business is scaling, but management is prioritizing reach and inventory before it becomes a primary revenue driver.
  • Live events, gaming, AI-enabled discovery and ad technology are positioned as longer-term growth initiatives.

Management priorities

  • Scale the ad-supported tier and deploy Netflix’s proprietary ad server.
  • Continue converting paid sharing into paid memberships while monitoring churn.
  • Expand live events and the gaming catalog.
  • Improve discovery through a redesigned homepage and AI-related capabilities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NFLX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $9B Q4 '23 actual $9B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $9B Q1 '24 actual $9B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $10B Q2 '24 actual $10B, match Q2 '25 estimate $11B Q2 '25 actual $11B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $12B Q3 '25 actual $12B, match Q4 '25 estimate $12B Q4 '25 actual $12B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $12B Q1 '26 actual $12B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $13B Q2 '26 actual $13B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $13B Q4 '26 estimate $14B Q1 '27 estimate $14B Q2 '27 estimate $14B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy98 ratings
Bullish6263.3%
Neutral2828.6%
Bearish88.1%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$69.85Previous close
$30.4Low
$102.27Average
$300High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
Rosenblatt Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 16, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 13, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 8, 2026
Show 94 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $69.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Seaport GlobalDavid Joyce$90$69.62 +28.8%Oct 19, 2026
WedbushAlicia Reese$90$72.61 +28.8%Oct 16, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$125$72.61 +79.0%Oct 16, 2026
JefferiesJohn Colantuoni$85$70.57 +21.7%Oct 15, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$85$70.61 +21.7%Oct 13, 2026
See 290 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Historical context

All NFLX earnings
-7.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-9.7%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-2.2%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-11T06:39:45.180704+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-20T11:30:43.855831+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-20T11:30:43.852970+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-20. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.