Nasdaq, Inc. · NDAQ · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Nasdaq Q3 growth stays strong as AI and always-on markets advance

Nasdaq’s supplied analysis supports a constructive operating trajectory: AI-enabled products, cloud migration, passive-investing demand and always-on market initiatives are broadening growth drivers. The key test is whether agentic AI and tokenization convert into durable revenue while regulatory, adoption and IPO-cycle risks remain contained.

Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services $53.73B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.02
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.47B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.9% Event window
SPY move -1.0% Same window
Abnormal move +7.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 0.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
NDAQSPY benchmark

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What changed

The quarter added several concrete execution markers to the prior strategy: Nasdaq announced LeveL Markets, set a December 6, 2026 target for 23/5 trading, targeted an equity-token launch for the first half of 2027, and highlighted agentic AI workers in Verafin and Calypso. The supplied analysis also described 14% revenue growth and 14% ARR growth, with no change to the outlook.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook; no change was indicated in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Management described third-quarter revenue growth of 14% and ARR growth of 14%, supported by AI-enabled data products, cloud migration and passive-investing demand.
  • The strategy is expanding toward always-on market infrastructure, with 23/5 trading planned for December 6, 2026, and an equity-token launch targeted for the first half of 2027.
  • Nasdaq announced the LeveL Markets acquisition and highlighted agentic AI workers across Verafin, Calypso and Surveillance.
  • Capital allocation remained active, with $500 million returned to shareholders and a planned $315 million to $385 million accelerated share repurchase.
  • Market Services reached record revenue despite modest growth, while management emphasized continued investment in fintech, data and tokenization.

Management priorities

  • Scale agentic AI capabilities across Verafin, Calypso and Surveillance.
  • Execute the 23/5 trading launch and develop the Nasdaq equity token.
  • Expand cloud migration across fintech, AxiomSL and Calypso.
  • Advance Digital Liquidity Networks and integrate LeveL ATS capabilities.
  • Continue organic growth and selective bolt-on acquisitions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NDAQ REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $2B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $2B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $2B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1B Q4 '25 actual $1B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $2B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B Q2 '27 estimate $2B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy36 ratings
Bullish2261.1%
Neutral1336.1%
Bearish12.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$101.59Current
$55Low
$87.86Average
$120High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 12, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 9, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 7, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 2, 2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 24, 2026
Show 31 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $101.59. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$118$92.37 +16.2%Oct 9, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$108$91.67 +6.3%Oct 2, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$100$91.67 -1.6%Oct 1, 2026
Morgan StanleyMichael Cyprys$120$91.56 +18.1%Jul 24, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$111$90.42 +9.3%Jul 24, 2026
See 49 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Nasdaq, Inc., a technology powerhouse founded in 1971 and based in New York City, is dedicated to supporting capital markets and various other sectors worldwide. Its Market Technology division specializes in fighting financial crime, offering products like Nasdaq Trade Surveillance, a SaaS solution that assists brokers and market participants in meeting compliance requirements and internal surveillance policies. This segment also provides Nasdaq Automated Investigator, a cloud-deployed anti-money laundering tool, and Verafin, a SaaS provider for anti-financial crime management. Furthermore, this division handles a wide array of assets, including cash equities, equity derivatives, global currencies, interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy resources, and digital currencies. The Investment Intelligence segment is responsible for distributing both historical and live market data, creating and licensing Nasdaq-branded financial indexes and products, and delivering valuable investment insights and workflow solutions.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-22T16:06:10.324388+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-22T01:23:13.354406+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T16:40:45.185501+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T16:40:45.182464+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.