Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold43 ratings
Bullish2353.5%
Neutral1739.5%
Bearish37.0%
ArcelorMittal S.A. · MT · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
ArcelorMittal sees stronger European shipments, with fuller TRQ benefits ahead
Management described improving European steel conditions—supported by lower imports, higher utilization and the TRQ framework—alongside continued project ramp-ups. The durability of that improvement depends on pricing, cost trends and execution; management expects the TRQ contribution to build further in 2027.
Why did MT fall 3.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$45.56B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.15
Consensus $0.80
EPS surprise
+43.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$16.47B
Consensus $17.77B
Revenue surprise
-7.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.3%
Event window
SPY move
-4.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
MTSPY benchmark
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Why did MT fall 3.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in MT's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for MT after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management reported stronger year-over-year EBITDA and said European flat-steel imports were substantially lower. With European furnaces back online, the company expects double-digit shipment growth in Europe in Q4. Management also said the TRQ framework's full benefits are not yet reflected and are expected to materialize in 2027.
Guidance delta
Management raised its near-term outlook, including expectations for double-digit European shipment growth in Q4, and sees fuller TRQ benefits in 2027. The supplied transcript analysis does not specify a revised full-year financial target.
Key takeaways
- Higher utilization and lower European flat-steel imports supported Q3 performance, according to management.
- Management expects double-digit European shipment growth in Q4; a meaningful portion of European flat-product volumes resets annually on January 1, 2027.
- The company continues project ramp-ups in Brazil, India and North America while maintaining disciplined capital allocation and share buybacks.
Management priorities
- Capture the benefits of the TRQ framework and annual contract repricing.
- Ramp up restarted European furnaces and strategic projects in Brazil, India and North America.
- Maintain disciplined capital allocation and ongoing shareholder returns.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$60.98Current
$29.6Low
$58.4Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 10, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2023 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 6, 2023 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 8, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2020 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 30, 2020 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 22, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 28, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Commerzbank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 11, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2019 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 22, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2017 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 1, 2016 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 16, 2016 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2016 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 7, 2015 |
| HSBC | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 7, 2015 |
| ABN Amro | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2015 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 17, 2015 |
| Nord/LB | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 24, 2014 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jun 1, 2014 |
| Kepler Cheuvreux | Reduce | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 25, 2014 |
| Nomura | Reduce | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2013 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2013 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2013 |
| Ingalls & Snyder, LLC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 29, 2013 |
| ING | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 29, 2013 |
| Janco Partners | Buy | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 7, 2013 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2012 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
| Investec | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 10, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $60.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $64.27 | +29.5% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $72.2 | +34.5% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $68.98 | +23.0% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $62 | $63.21 | +1.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bastian Synagowitz | $70 | $64.79 | +14.8% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $60 | $62.05 | -1.6% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bastian Synagowitz | $49 | $42.26 | -19.7% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $39 | $38.82 | -36.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Cole Hathorn | $36.2 | $31.55 | -40.6% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bastian Synagowitz | $31 | $23.47 | -49.2% | Aug 27, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Matt Greene | $29.6 | $25.38 | -51.5% | May 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $22.19 | -36.0% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Carsten Riek | $50 | $33.01 | -18.0% | Apr 14, 2022 |
Track every rating change on MT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArcelorMittal S.A. and its subsidiaries operate as a comprehensive, globally integrated steel production and mining enterprise, with operations spanning Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. The firm's core steel offerings encompass a wide array of items. These include semi-finished flat goods, specifically slabs, alongside finished flat products like plates, hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils and sheets, galvanized coils and sheets (both hot-dipped and electro-galvanized), tinplate, and pre-painted coils and sheets. For long products, it manufactures semi-finished forms such as blooms and billets. Its finished long products consist of bars, wire-rods, structural sections, railway rails, sheet piles, and various wire products. Additionally, ArcelorMittal supplies both seamless and welded pipes and tubes.…
Basic Materials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAG Iamgold Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.7% | +4.6% | IAMGOLD keeps FY2026 guidance on track as Côté improvements support outlook |
| APD Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | 0.0% | -2.9% | Air Products closes FY2026 with growth, larger backlog and FY2027 plans |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | +3.6% | Albemarle’s Q3 gains reflect firmer lithium pricing and cost discipline |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.9% | -14.9% | Advanced Drainage Systems lowers revenue outlook as growth moderates |
| JHX James Hardie Industries plc | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.5% | -2.9% | James Hardie grows sales, expands margins, maintains FY2027 guidance |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FNFFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 20260.0% EPS+6.6% move
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- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
- STEFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026+9.7% EPS+2.5% move
- IRMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+4.6% EPS-11.1% move
Missed on EPS
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
- UHALFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026-15.4% EPS-3.2% move
- LAMRFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-3.6% EPS-0.8% move
- CMIFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-6.0% EPS-4.9% move
Get the MT recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T21:11:24.737250+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T12:40:44.312668+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T12:40:44.310104+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.