Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish827.6%
Neutral1655.2%
Bearish517.2%
Moderna, Inc. · MRNA · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Moderna: Q2 revenue beat, pipeline progress, trial risks remain
The quarter provided support for Moderna's commercial and pipeline expansion thesis through a revenue beat, flu-vaccine progress, global approvals, and continued oncology development. The evidence is mixed: the norovirus interim result, litigation cash cost, regulatory uncertainty, COVID-demand risk, and manufacturing constraints temper the outlook.
Reported Before market openNASDAQHealthcare
$72.44B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-1.97
Consensus $-2.03
EPS surprise
+3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$145.0M
Consensus $102.9M
Revenue surprise
+40.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-6.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+151.7%
Up to 20 sessions
MRNASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MRNA FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MRNA fall 5.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in MRNA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MRNA after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Since the prior quarter, Moderna reported Q2 revenue of $145 million, highlighted a positive VRBPAC recommendation for mRNA-1010, and disclosed that the mRNA-1403 norovirus Phase III interim analysis did not meet early success criteria, prompting an additional cohort. The company also emphasized AI work in neoantigen selection, while the $950 million litigation settlement remains a cash-flow issue.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance stance, reaffirmed up to 10% 2026 revenue growth, and lowered cash-cost guidance.
Key takeaways
- Q2 revenue beat expectations, while management emphasized financial discipline and a lower cash-cost outlook.
- The seasonal flu vaccine reached a positive VRBPAC milestone; mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA approvals and launches support commercial expansion.
- Intismeran remains a key oncology catalyst, while a norovirus interim analysis did not meet early success criteria and led to an additional cohort.
- New commercial leadership and partnerships support expansion across Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, and other markets.
- A $950 million litigation settlement will affect Q3 cash, while COVID-vaccine demand, regulatory timing, and manufacturing capacity remain risks.
Management priorities
- Advance mRNA-1010 toward approval and expand flu-vaccine access.
- Continue commercialization of mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA across global markets.
- Progress Intismeran and other oncology programs through Phase II and Phase III readouts.
- Expand commercial partnerships and geographic reach.
- Use AI to improve neoantigen selection for individualized cancer vaccines.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$182.56Current
$15Low
$115.12Average
$350High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 6, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 4, 2023 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Feb 24, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| Chardan Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 18, 2023 |
| Brookline Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 1, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $182.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $150.81 | -55.6% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $180 | $142.77 | -1.4% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Eliana Merle | $125 | $145.13 | -31.5% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Yee | $150 | $174.38 | -17.8% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $174.38 | -34.3% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $130 | $151.3 | -28.8% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $135 | $139.12 | -26.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $245 | $138.2 | +34.2% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.49 | -63.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Alexandria Hammond | $25 | $61.82 | -86.3% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $79.77 | -78.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $81.8 | -75.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $67.66 | -57.8% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $47.46 | -75.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $38 | $46.87 | -79.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $45.37 | -73.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $44.18 | -81.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Tsai | $37 | $49.83 | -79.7% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $30 | $42.54 | -83.6% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $35 | $43.19 | -80.8% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.23 | -75.4% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $42.23 | -80.3% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $42.23 | -83.6% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $35.66 | -81.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $29.9 | -84.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $29.62 | -83.6% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $25 | $23.1 | -86.3% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $22.36 | -90.1% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $22.36 | -65.5% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $22.36 | -90.7% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $24.77 | -84.7% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $26.85 | -78.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $27.12 | -91.8% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jessica Fye | $26 | $29.56 | -85.8% | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kaimov | $50 | $31.92 | -72.6% | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $69 | $37.27 | -62.2% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| HSBC | Yifeng Liu | $58 | $84.93 | -68.2% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Courtney Breen | $55 | $57.46 | -69.9% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $55 | $57.73 | -69.9% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $115 | $69.68 | -37.0% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $75 | $69.68 | -58.9% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $238 | $69.68 | +30.4% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $65 | $69.68 | -64.4% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $105 | $67.68 | -42.5% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $94 | $67.51 | -48.5% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $120 | $67.52 | -34.3% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $220 | $78.52 | +20.5% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| HSBC | Yifeng Liu | $82 | $78.98 | -55.1% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $80 | $82.3 | -56.2% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $90 | $86.58 | -50.7% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $157 | $90.03 | -14.0% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $179 | $148.39 | -2.0% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $310 | $147.47 | +69.8% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $180 | $152.03 | -1.4% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $160 | $141.83 | -12.4% | May 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $120 | $125.67 | -34.3% | May 13, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $85 | $124.06 | -53.4% | May 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $151 | $122.13 | -17.3% | May 7, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $155 | $123.02 | -15.1% | May 3, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Bill Maughan | $106 | $125.59 | -41.9% | May 3, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $163 | $125.59 | -10.7% | May 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $135 | $125.59 | -26.1% | May 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $95 | $125 | -48.0% | May 2, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $89 | $108.85 | -51.2% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $125 | $110.59 | -31.5% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $143 | $107.41 | -21.7% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $123 | $87.59 | -32.6% | Feb 22, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $142 | $113.15 | -22.2% | Jan 2, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $191 | $121.14 | +4.6% | Jun 26, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $189.89 | +18.9% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $193.29 | +50.6% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $191.78 | +14.5% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Chardan Capital | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $212.4 | +4.6% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $197.54 | -44.1% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg Hellweg | $150 | $123.64 | -17.8% | Sep 24, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $214 | $142.28 | +17.2% | May 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $199 | $155.05 | +9.0% | May 4, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $348 | $176.59 | +90.6% | Apr 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $205 | $173.08 | +12.3% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $155 | $129.28 | -15.1% | Mar 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $170 | $151.33 | -6.9% | Feb 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Gena Wang | $210 | $156.23 | +15.0% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Tyler Van Buren | $200 | $172.74 | +9.6% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $175 | $154.96 | -4.1% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $221 | $160.07 | +21.1% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg | $350 | $216.06 | +91.7% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Andrew Galler | $304 | $244.68 | +66.5% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Cory Kasimov | $165 | $284.02 | -9.6% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Nick Abbott | $145 | $234.46 | -20.6% | Jun 29, 2021 |
| Chardan Capital | Geulah Livshits | $188 | $185.01 | +3.0% | May 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MRNA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationModerna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah.…
Historical context
All MRNA earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.7% | -14.7% | CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue |
| MDT Medtronic plc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +1.5% | Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms |
| A Agilent Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.7% | +1.7% | Agilent raises outlook after Q3 beat; Ignite drives margin gains |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Get the MRNA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T18:12:43.220124+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-05T01:23:14.965082+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T02:20:53.261363+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T02:20:53.257331+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.