Moderna, Inc. · MRNA · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Moderna: Q2 revenue beat, pipeline progress, trial risks remain

The quarter provided support for Moderna's commercial and pipeline expansion thesis through a revenue beat, flu-vaccine progress, global approvals, and continued oncology development. The evidence is mixed: the norovirus interim result, litigation cash cost, regulatory uncertainty, COVID-demand risk, and manufacturing constraints temper the outlook.

Reported Before market openNASDAQHealthcare $72.44B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-1.97 Consensus $-2.03
EPS surprise +3.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $145.0M Consensus $102.9M
Revenue surprise +40.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -5.4% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -6.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +151.7% Up to 20 sessions
MRNASPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about MRNA FY2026 Q2

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Why did MRNA fall 5.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in MRNA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MRNA after FY2026 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Since the prior quarter, Moderna reported Q2 revenue of $145 million, highlighted a positive VRBPAC recommendation for mRNA-1010, and disclosed that the mRNA-1403 norovirus Phase III interim analysis did not meet early success criteria, prompting an additional cohort. The company also emphasized AI work in neoantigen selection, while the $950 million litigation settlement remains a cash-flow issue.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its guidance stance, reaffirmed up to 10% 2026 revenue growth, and lowered cash-cost guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue beat expectations, while management emphasized financial discipline and a lower cash-cost outlook.
  • The seasonal flu vaccine reached a positive VRBPAC milestone; mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA approvals and launches support commercial expansion.
  • Intismeran remains a key oncology catalyst, while a norovirus interim analysis did not meet early success criteria and led to an additional cohort.
  • New commercial leadership and partnerships support expansion across Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, and other markets.
  • A $950 million litigation settlement will affect Q3 cash, while COVID-vaccine demand, regulatory timing, and manufacturing capacity remain risks.

Management priorities

  • Advance mRNA-1010 toward approval and expand flu-vaccine access.
  • Continue commercialization of mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA across global markets.
  • Progress Intismeran and other oncology programs through Phase II and Phase III readouts.
  • Expand commercial partnerships and geographic reach.
  • Use AI to improve neoantigen selection for individualized cancer vaccines.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MRNA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $-0.97 Q4 '23 actual $0.55, beat Q1 '24 estimate $-3.56 Q1 '24 actual $-3.07, beat Q2 '24 estimate $-3.35 Q2 '24 actual $-3.33, beat Q3 '24 estimate $-1.90 Q3 '24 actual $0.03, beat Q2 '25 estimate $-2.99 Q2 '25 actual $-2.13, beat Q3 '25 estimate $-1.87 Q3 '25 actual $-0.51, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-2.54 Q4 '25 actual $-2.11, beat Q1 '26 estimate $-4.45 Q1 '26 actual $-3.40, beat Q2 '26 estimate $-2.03 Q2 '26 actual $-1.97, beat Q3 '26 estimate $-1.10 Q4 '26 estimate $-1.96 Q1 '27 estimate $-1.69
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish827.6%
Neutral1655.2%
Bearish517.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$182.56Current
$15Low
$115.12Average
$350High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rothschild & Co Sell NeutralDowngradeSep 3, 2026
Argus Research Buy HoldUpgradeAug 28, 2026
Wolfe Research Peer Perform UnderperformUpgradeAug 25, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 24, 2026
JP Morgan Underweight UnderweightMaintainAug 21, 2026
Show 24 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $182.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$81$150.81 -55.6%Sep 3, 2026
Argus ResearchJohn Eade$180$142.77 -1.4%Aug 28, 2026
BarclaysEliana Merle$125$145.13 -31.5%Aug 24, 2026
UBSMichael Yee$150$174.38 -17.8%Aug 20, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$120$174.38 -34.3%Aug 19, 2026
See 85 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah.…

Historical context

All MRNA earnings
-1.2%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Healthcare peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
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COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.7% -14.7% CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue
MDT Medtronic plc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +1.5% Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms
A Agilent Technologies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.7% +1.7% Agilent raises outlook after Q3 beat; Ignite drives margin gains

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T18:12:43.220124+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-05T01:23:14.965082+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T02:20:53.261363+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T02:20:53.257331+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.