Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish827.6%
Neutral1655.2%
Bearish517.2%
Moderna, Inc. · MRNA · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Moderna raises outlook while regulatory and pipeline risks remain
The current analysis strengthens the case for a more constructive trajectory: management raised its guidance sentiment, cited up to 10% 2026 revenue growth, reported strong MNEXT Spike share, and highlighted pipeline progress. The thesis remains conditional because flu-program regulatory uncertainty, clinical readout timing, competition and international execution could limit delivery.
Reported Before market openNASDAQHealthcare
$76.41B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-2.11
Consensus $-2.54
EPS surprise
+16.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$678.0M
Consensus $635.2M
Revenue surprise
+6.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+26.2%
Up to 20 sessions
MRNASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MRNA FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MRNA rise 5.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MRNA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MRNA after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior analysis, the current analysis describes raised rather than lowered guidance sentiment, higher reported cash of $8.1 billion, up to 10% 2026 revenue growth, leading MNEXT Spike U.S. retail share, and additional international and pipeline progress. Regulatory uncertainty around mRNA-1010 is now a more prominent constraint.
Guidance delta
Management’s guidance sentiment shifted from lowered in the prior analysis to raised in the current analysis, with the 2026 outlook targeting up to 10% revenue growth.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion and a narrowed net loss after significant cost reductions.
- MNEXT Spike reached 24% overall U.S. retail share and 34% among seniors 65+ in the supplied analysis.
- The 2026 outlook targets up to 10% revenue growth, supported by international expansion and local manufacturing.
- Late-stage oncology, flu, norovirus and rare-disease programs remain important pipeline drivers.
- Cash ended at $8.1 billion, while the flu program faces regulatory uncertainty after an FDA refusal-to-file letter.
Management priorities
- Expand MNEXT Spike internationally, including planned regulatory submissions in Europe, Japan and Taiwan.
- Advance mRNA-1010 and mRNA-1083 filings and prepare the U.S. flu-vaccine refiling.
- Complete readouts for INT adjuvant melanoma, renal cell carcinoma and bladder cancer studies.
- Begin local vaccine manufacturing in the U.K. and Australia in 2026.
- Launch the propionic-acidemia commercialization collaboration with Recordati.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$199.83Current
$15Low
$115.12Average
$350High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 6, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 4, 2023 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Feb 24, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| Chardan Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 18, 2023 |
| Brookline Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 1, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $199.83. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $150.81 | -59.5% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $180 | $142.77 | -9.9% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Eliana Merle | $125 | $145.13 | -37.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Yee | $150 | $174.38 | -24.9% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $174.38 | -39.9% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $130 | $151.3 | -34.9% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $135 | $139.12 | -32.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $245 | $138.2 | +22.6% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.49 | -66.5% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Alexandria Hammond | $25 | $61.82 | -87.5% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $79.77 | -80.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $81.8 | -77.5% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $67.66 | -61.5% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $47.46 | -77.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $38 | $46.87 | -81.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $45.37 | -75.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $44.18 | -83.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Tsai | $37 | $49.83 | -81.5% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $30 | $42.54 | -85.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $35 | $43.19 | -82.5% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.23 | -77.5% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $42.23 | -82.0% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $42.23 | -85.0% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $35.66 | -83.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $29.9 | -86.0% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $29.62 | -85.0% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $25 | $23.1 | -87.5% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $22.36 | -91.0% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $22.36 | -68.5% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $22.36 | -91.5% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $24.77 | -86.0% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $26.85 | -80.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $27.12 | -92.5% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jessica Fye | $26 | $29.56 | -87.0% | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kaimov | $50 | $31.92 | -75.0% | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $69 | $37.27 | -65.5% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| HSBC | Yifeng Liu | $58 | $84.93 | -71.0% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Courtney Breen | $55 | $57.46 | -72.5% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $55 | $57.73 | -72.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $115 | $69.68 | -42.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $75 | $69.68 | -62.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $238 | $69.68 | +19.1% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $65 | $69.68 | -67.5% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $105 | $67.68 | -47.5% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $94 | $67.51 | -53.0% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $120 | $67.52 | -39.9% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $220 | $78.52 | +10.1% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| HSBC | Yifeng Liu | $82 | $78.98 | -59.0% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $80 | $82.3 | -60.0% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $90 | $86.58 | -55.0% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $157 | $90.03 | -21.4% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $179 | $148.39 | -10.4% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $310 | $147.47 | +55.1% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $180 | $152.03 | -9.9% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $160 | $141.83 | -19.9% | May 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $120 | $125.67 | -39.9% | May 13, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $85 | $124.06 | -57.5% | May 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $151 | $122.13 | -24.4% | May 7, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $155 | $123.02 | -22.4% | May 3, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Bill Maughan | $106 | $125.59 | -47.0% | May 3, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $163 | $125.59 | -18.4% | May 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $135 | $125.59 | -32.4% | May 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $95 | $125 | -52.5% | May 2, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $89 | $108.85 | -55.5% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $125 | $110.59 | -37.4% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $143 | $107.41 | -28.4% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $123 | $87.59 | -38.4% | Feb 22, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $142 | $113.15 | -28.9% | Jan 2, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $191 | $121.14 | -4.4% | Jun 26, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $189.89 | +8.6% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $193.29 | +37.6% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $191.78 | +4.6% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Chardan Capital | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $212.4 | -4.4% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $197.54 | -49.0% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg Hellweg | $150 | $123.64 | -24.9% | Sep 24, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $214 | $142.28 | +7.1% | May 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $199 | $155.05 | -0.4% | May 4, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $348 | $176.59 | +74.1% | Apr 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $205 | $173.08 | +2.6% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $155 | $129.28 | -22.4% | Mar 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $170 | $151.33 | -14.9% | Feb 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Gena Wang | $210 | $156.23 | +5.1% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Tyler Van Buren | $200 | $172.74 | +0.1% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $175 | $154.96 | -12.4% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $221 | $160.07 | +10.6% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg | $350 | $216.06 | +75.1% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Andrew Galler | $304 | $244.68 | +52.1% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Cory Kasimov | $165 | $284.02 | -17.4% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Nick Abbott | $145 | $234.46 | -27.4% | Jun 29, 2021 |
| Chardan Capital | Geulah Livshits | $188 | $185.01 | -5.9% | May 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MRNA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationModerna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah.…
Historical context
All MRNA earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.7% | -14.7% | CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue |
| MDT Medtronic plc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +1.5% | Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the MRNA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T11:56:12.407058+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T11:56:12.404138+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.