Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish2475.0%
Neutral825.0%
Bearish00.0%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation · MPC · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Strong cash generation offsets West Coast margin pressure
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong cash generation, MPLX distributions, capital returns, and midstream growth support the outlook, while West Coast margins, refinery downtime, renewable diesel credits, and turnaround spending are material offsets.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$115.44B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.01
Consensus $3.15
EPS surprise
-4.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$34.81B
Consensus $33.45B
Revenue surprise
+4.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-6.1%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.1%
Up to 20 sessions
MPCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MPC FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MPC fall 6.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in MPC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for MPC after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis shifts from exceptionally strong 105% capture to 96% capture as West Coast margin pressure and RHU downtime weighed on results. The current analysis adds a 10% dividend increase, a positive Q4 outlook tied to the LAR project, and lower expected capex in 2026.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the outlook points to a positive Q4, lower 2026 capex expectations, and continued capital returns.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted strong cash generation, a 10% dividend increase, and continued capital returns.
- Capture fell to 96% because of West Coast margin pressure and RHU downtime, while year-to-date capture remained above 100%.
- MPLX distribution growth and Permian midstream and NGL projects remain central growth drivers.
- Management expects a positive Q4 as the LAR project comes online and refinery turnarounds progress.
Management priorities
- Bring the LAR refinery project online in Q4.
- Complete Delaware Basin midstream acquisitions and additional NGL projects.
- Continue dividend growth and share buybacks.
- Advance longer-term fractionation and LPG export infrastructure plans.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$415.23Current
$68Low
$249.26Average
$472High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Dec 26, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2016 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | May 27, 2015 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 3, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 30, 2014 |
| Simmons & Co. | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 2, 2013 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $415.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $413 | $402.38 | -0.5% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $472 | $424.89 | +13.7% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $404.77 | +7.2% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $453 | $407.14 | +9.1% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $388.9 | +8.4% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Royall | $462 | $387 | +11.3% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $373.32 | -3.7% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $320.32 | -26.8% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Royall | $344 | $300.09 | -17.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $321 | $297.75 | -22.7% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $310.71 | -20.5% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $359 | $312.61 | -13.5% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $343 | $315.82 | -17.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $335 | $294.06 | -19.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $283.74 | -30.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $283.74 | -19.3% | Jul 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $321 | $280.61 | -22.7% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $344 | $263.58 | -17.2% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $260.81 | -36.2% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $248.05 | -31.6% | May 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $249.32 | -31.4% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $260.51 | -35.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $233 | $221.1 | -43.9% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $220.27 | -44.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $223.52 | -45.1% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $225 | $203.91 | -45.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $221 | $203.63 | -46.8% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $187.58 | -47.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $174 | $176.1 | -58.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $175.54 | -50.6% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $172.51 | -55.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $186.97 | -52.8% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $200 | $184.54 | -51.8% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $203 | $181.15 | -51.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $194 | $180.89 | -53.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $189.06 | -54.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $192.24 | -51.8% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $196.44 | -47.0% | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $170 | $167.42 | -59.1% | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $147.35 | -53.5% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $141.15 | -61.2% | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $174 | $151.06 | -58.1% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $174 | $157.9 | -58.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $170 | $162.61 | -59.1% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $145 | $164.22 | -65.1% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $189 | $163.58 | -54.5% | Sep 14, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $200 | $165.56 | -51.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $231 | $165.46 | -44.4% | Jul 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $196 | $164.29 | -52.8% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $201 | $172.45 | -51.6% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $168 | $168.9 | -59.5% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $230 | $174.66 | -44.6% | May 30, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $190 | $177.86 | -54.2% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $203 | $179.56 | -51.1% | May 13, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $195 | $182.55 | -53.0% | May 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $202 | $212.27 | -51.4% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $204 | $216.25 | -50.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $227 | $214.96 | -45.3% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $160 | $128.38 | -61.5% | Mar 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $165 | $129.41 | -60.3% | Mar 9, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $123.85 | -65.6% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $125.67 | -63.2% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $128.52 | -60.3% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $122.08 | -62.7% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $109.75 | -65.6% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $117 | $95.79 | -71.8% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $135 | $84.48 | -67.5% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $129 | $102.17 | -68.9% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $93.42 | -73.5% | May 4, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $84.86 | -74.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $115 | $84.08 | -72.3% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $90.98 | -73.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $85 | $72.81 | -79.5% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $80 | $72.16 | -80.7% | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $88 | $69.93 | -78.8% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $73 | $63.11 | -82.4% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $73 | $62.66 | -82.4% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $68 | $55.29 | -83.6% | May 4, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MPC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMarathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur.…
Historical context
All MPC earningsLatest beats and misses
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Get the MPC recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T14:26:12.508964+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T14:26:12.506198+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.