Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish00.0%
Neutral1280.0%
Bearish320.0%
Markel Corporation · MKL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Markel pairs stronger underwriting with a $205 million credit loss
Markel’s Q2 analysis supports a constructive operating picture: underwriting improved, AI investments are expanding, and capital returns continued. The main counterweight is credit and reserve risk, especially around State National.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$22.87B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$19.51
Consensus $30.64
EPS surprise
-36.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.19B
Consensus $4.50B
Revenue surprise
+15.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-6.4%
Event window
SPY move
+1.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.3%
Up to 20 sessions
MKLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MKL FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MKL fall 6.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in MKL's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MKL after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added a substantial State National credit loss, described as the first in 40 years, while management highlighted improving insurance combined ratios, the Cortex underwriting unit, Agentic AI deployment, and $237 million of share repurchases.
Guidance delta
Maintained.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted operating income improved year over year and the insurance combined ratio reached the low 90s.
- State National recorded a $205 million credit loss, prompting a conservative reserve estimate.
- Cortex and Agentic AI are intended to improve underwriting efficiency and address hard-to-place casualty risks.
- Share repurchases totaled $237 million in Q2, with cumulative buybacks since 2022 above $2 billion.
- Industrial revenue grew modestly, but car-hauling equipment margin pressure reduced adjusted operating income.
Management priorities
- Expand AI integration across underwriting, including Agentic AI and AI accelerator projects.
- Scale Cortex for hard-to-place casualty opportunities.
- Upgrade ClaimCenter, PolicyCenter, and the broader data environment.
- Maintain capital discipline and share repurchases funded by earnings.
- Pursue selective small acquisitions and bolt-on opportunities.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,869.82Current
$1,500Low
$1,655Average
$1,950High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 7, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 2, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 4, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 17, 2016 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 7, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 10, 2014 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 1, 2013 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 1, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,869.82. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $1,950 | $1,759.21 | +4.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $2,100 | $2,127.72 | +12.3% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $1,625 | $1,576.55 | -13.1% | May 3, 2024 |
| Janney Montgomery | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,280.74 | -17.1% | Dec 22, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,384.7 | -19.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,650 | $1,381.53 | -11.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
Track every rating change on MKL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMarkel Corporation operates as a multifaceted financial conglomerate, engaging in the marketing and underwriting of specialized insurance offerings across numerous global regions. Its operational footprint spans the United States, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Canada, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. Within its Insurance segment, the company delivers a broad spectrum of protection. This includes general and professional liability coverage, personal lines, marine and energy policies, bespoke specialty programs, and workers' compensation. Furthermore, it provides property insurance encompassing fire, allied perils, and other tailored property coverages, notably safeguarding against catastrophe-exposed risks such as earthquakes and severe wind events. This segment also extends to credit and surety offerings, alongside collateral protection insurance. The Reinsurance division focuses on sophisticated risk transfer solutions.…
Historical context
All MKL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| NWG NatWest Group plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | -9.0% | NatWest maintains guidance as Q3 growth and capital remain strong |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
| TPG TPG Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.3% | +7.5% | TPG raises FRE margin outlook as capital formation accelerates |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +2.9% | AJG: Q3 growth and AssuredPartners synergies support outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
- ABBVFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.4% EPS+1.4% move
- GDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+9.0% EPS+0.5% move
- MGAFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+15.8% EPS-1.4% move
Missed on EPS
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- AMZNFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-4.1% EPS-1.6% move
Get the MKL recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-30T20:11:42.896673+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T12:30:44.301361+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-31T12:30:44.299636+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.