Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish1856.3%
Neutral1340.6%
Bearish13.1%
Moody's Corporation · MCO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Moody's enters 2026 with raised outlook and an AI-led growth plan
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: resilient demand for decision-grade data, ratings, private-credit analytics, KYC, and insurance modeling provides a foundation for growth, while AI monetization, competition, and customer concentration are the key tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$78.67B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.64
Consensus $3.43
EPS surprise
+6.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.89B
Consensus $1.86B
Revenue surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+6.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.7%
Up to 20 sessions
MCOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MCO FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MCO rise 6.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MCO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MCO after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter, the latest analysis emphasizes a full-year 2025 record, a 2026 high-single-digit growth outlook, expanded AI product and platform integration plans, a $100 million capex increase, and continued capital returns. Strategic divestitures further narrow the portfolio around recurring-revenue and analytics priorities.
Guidance delta
Management's guidance sentiment remained raised: the 2026 outlook called for high-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EPS of $16.40-$17, and margin expansion in Ratings and Analytics.
Key takeaways
- Management described record 2025 revenue and earnings, with operating margin expanding to 51.1%.
- AI-enabled decision-grade data, analytics, private credit, KYC, and insurance modeling were identified as growth drivers.
- The company is expanding its AI context layer through APIs and platform integrations while sharpening focus through divestitures.
- The investment case still depends on converting AI initiatives into ARR and managing competitive and customer-concentration risks.
Management priorities
- Scale AI-enabled lending products and an agent-ready data sales team.
- Expand KYC compliance, insurance risk modeling, and the AI context layer across customer workflows.
- Continue geographic expansion in APAC and the Middle East through AI-enabled partnerships.
- Maintain capital investment and shareholder returns, including the stated headquarters capex increase, repurchases, and dividend growth.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$454.13Previous close
$321Low
$501.03Average
$620High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Daiwa Capital | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 2, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jun 8, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 13, 2020 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 5, 2019 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 5, 2019 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 8, 2016 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 28, 2014 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 28, 2013 |
| Lazard | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 25, 2013 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2013 |
| BTIG Research | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jul 11, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $454.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Sean Kennedy | $530 | $488.89 | +16.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $505 | $473.95 | +11.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $572 | $477.81 | +26.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $597 | $489.79 | +31.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $512 | $489.79 | +12.7% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $487.02 | +26.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $496 | $502.26 | +9.2% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $498.78 | +13.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Charles Bendit | $500 | $456.22 | +10.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $521 | $460.74 | +14.7% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Wurtzel | $535 | $451.74 | +17.8% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $489 | $454.18 | +7.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $590 | $466.88 | +29.9% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| National Bank | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $466.88 | +24.4% | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $524 | $437.11 | +15.4% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $447.82 | +21.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $490 | $442.78 | +7.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $610 | $448.74 | +34.3% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $450.76 | +5.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $450.76 | +18.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $531 | $450.76 | +16.9% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $532 | $452.49 | +17.1% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $526 | $535.12 | +15.8% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Daiwa | Kazuya Nishimura | $590 | $535.12 | +29.9% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $620 | $533.78 | +36.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Shlomo Rosenbaum | $574 | $498.98 | +26.4% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $570 | $487.37 | +25.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Sean Kennedy | $550 | $494.44 | +21.1% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $507 | $471.75 | +11.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $471 | $472.79 | +3.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Jason Haas | $620 | $472.79 | +36.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $521 | $478.51 | +14.7% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Sean Kennedy | $539 | $478.51 | +18.7% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $490.09 | +14.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $528 | $476.48 | +16.3% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $528 | $476.48 | +16.3% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $456 | $430.77 | +0.4% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $402.43 | +14.5% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $545 | $476.27 | +20.0% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $543 | $467.73 | +19.6% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Jeffrey Meuler | $512 | $467.73 | +12.7% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $464 | $479.44 | +2.2% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $536 | $470.19 | +18.0% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemeden | $521 | $471.4 | +14.7% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $470 | $451.89 | +3.5% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Jeffrey Meuler | $490 | $451.89 | +7.9% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $455 | $435.58 | +0.2% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $454 | $420.93 | -0.0% | Jul 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $450 | $412.02 | -0.9% | May 16, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Shlomo Rosenbaum | $374 | $387.7 | -17.6% | May 7, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $424 | $393.89 | -6.6% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Manav Patnaik | $450 | $393.89 | -0.9% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | George Tong | $412 | $393.03 | -9.3% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $362 | $341.49 | -20.3% | Jul 7, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $342 | $319.98 | -24.7% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $322.75 | -33.9% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $284.96 | -35.5% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $293.16 | -35.3% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $306.08 | -39.4% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $297.54 | -35.0% | Nov 23, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $294.36 | -31.7% | Nov 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $271 | $289.37 | -40.3% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $281 | $250.3 | -38.1% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $263 | $245 | -42.1% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $251.4 | -36.6% | Sep 27, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $348 | $313.94 | -23.4% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $352 | $324.6 | -22.5% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $286.17 | -37.7% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $321 | $286.57 | -29.3% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $327 | $280.95 | -28.0% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $282.99 | -34.4% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $329 | $284.53 | -27.6% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $285.28 | -36.6% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $289.49 | -28.7% | Jun 2, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $309 | $281.11 | -32.0% | Jun 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $282.38 | -32.8% | Jun 2, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $372 | $304.6 | -18.1% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $318 | $302.09 | -30.0% | May 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $301.13 | -22.9% | May 3, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $303.06 | -22.9% | May 3, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $344 | $301.13 | -24.3% | May 3, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $364 | $301.13 | -19.8% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $318 | $309.42 | -30.0% | May 3, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Jeffrey Meuler | $342 | $301.13 | -24.7% | May 2, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $375 | $322.42 | -17.4% | Apr 23, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $408 | $340.33 | -10.2% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $365 | $304.47 | -19.6% | Mar 12, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Jeffrey Meuler | $363 | $314 | -20.1% | Mar 10, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $403 | $314 | -11.3% | Mar 10, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Shlomo Rosenbaum | $385 | $325.84 | -15.2% | Mar 4, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $402 | $323.58 | -11.5% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | George Tong | $396 | $376.52 | -12.8% | Jul 28, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $375 | $326.25 | -17.4% | May 5, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MCO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMoody's Corporation operates as a global leader in risk assessment, divided into two main segments: Moody's Investors Service and Moody's Analytics. Moody's Investors Service is dedicated to issuing credit ratings and providing detailed assessments for a diverse range of debt obligations and the entities that issue them. This encompasses corporate, financial institution, governmental, and structured finance securities across approximately 140 nations. These ratings are made publicly available through press releases, digital media, and real-time financial information systems.…
Historical context
All MCO earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the MCO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T12:06:14.438021+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T12:06:14.435168+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.