Moody's Corporation · MCO · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Moody’s pairs resilient demand with efficiency and integration priorities

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: Moody’s enters 2025 with strong 2024 growth and secular demand drivers, while execution on efficiency savings, AI adoption and acquisitions must offset sensitivity to issuance and credit conditions.

Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $84.01B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $2.27
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.70B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +4.4% Event window
SPY move +1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +3.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -15.3% Up to 20 sessions
MCOSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the company moved from a raised outlook to maintained 2025 guidance, added a formal efficiency program, completed three acquisitions in six months and emphasized broader integration of AI and risk solutions.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook, targeting 2025 revenue growth in the high-single-digit range, adjusted EPS of $14-$14.50, MIS margin of 62%-63%, and MA margin of 32%-33%.

Key takeaways

  • Management described a record 2024, with revenue up 20% to more than $7 billion and adjusted diluted EPS up 26%.
  • Decision Solutions ARR grew 12% year over year, while private credit, climate risk, KYC and generative AI were highlighted as demand areas.
  • A new efficiency program is intended to produce $250-$300 million of annual savings, with $200-$250 million of restructuring charges.

Management priorities

  • Execute the efficiency and organizational simplification program.
  • Expand generative-AI features across IRP, Research Assistant and related solutions.
  • Integrate Numerated, CreditCat and Tape Analytics while expanding Moody’s Local in Central America and Africa.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCO EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.32 Q4 '23 actual $2.19, miss Q1 '24 estimate $3.04 Q1 '24 actual $3.37, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3.02 Q2 '24 actual $3.28, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.86 Q3 '24 actual $3.21, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.39 Q2 '25 actual $3.56, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3.70 Q3 '25 actual $3.92, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3.43 Q4 '25 actual $3.64, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4.22 Q1 '26 actual $4.33, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.26 Q2 '26 actual $4.68, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.26 Q4 '26 estimate $3.62 Q1 '27 estimate $4.73 Q2 '27 estimate $5.10
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish1856.3%
Neutral1340.6%
Bearish13.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$479.03Current
$321Low
$501.11Average
$620High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 19, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 14, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 13, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 7, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 27, 2026
Show 27 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $479.03. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesSurinder Thind$560$483.69 +16.9%Oct 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyToni Kaplan$470$452.32 -1.9%Oct 7, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesSean Kennedy$530$488.89 +10.6%Jul 27, 2026
UBSAlex Kramm$505$473.95 +5.4%Jul 23, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$572$477.81 +19.4%Jul 23, 2026
See 90 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Moody's Corporation operates as a global leader in risk assessment, divided into two main segments: Moody's Investors Service and Moody's Analytics. Moody's Investors Service is dedicated to issuing credit ratings and providing detailed assessments for a diverse range of debt obligations and the entities that issue them. This encompasses corporate, financial institution, governmental, and structured finance securities across approximately 140 nations. These ratings are made publicly available through press releases, digital media, and real-time financial information systems.…

Historical context

All MCO earnings

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-01T12:00:59.864464+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-19T12:20:44.080976+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-19T12:20:44.078213+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-19. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.