Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold19 ratings
Bullish631.6%
Neutral1263.1%
Bearish15.3%
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · LW · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026
Lamb Weston Q3: North America volume up 12%, FY26 guidance raised
Lamb Weston's near-term story rests on North American momentum offsetting international headwinds. FY2026 Q3 delivered 12% North America volume growth and 5% net-sales growth, a raise to the FY2026 net-sales and EBITDA outlook, and $100M of Focus to Win savings banked ahead of a $250M target. Offsetting this, an 8% price-mix decline, a European potato oversupply, soft restaurant traffic and Middle East disruption pressured results, while FY2026 capex was cut to about $400M. Durability depends on whether North American share gains and cost-and-working-capital discipline can sustain cash generation through continued price-mix and input-cost pressure.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$6.10B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.72
Consensus $0.63
EPS surprise
+15.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.56B
Consensus $1.50B
Revenue surprise
+4.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-8.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-9.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+13.2%
Up to 20 sessions
LWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LW FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LW fall 8.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in LW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for LW after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
North America delivered 12% volume growth and 5% net-sales growth, and management raised the low end of FY2026 net-sales guidance and lifted the EBITDA midpoint. The company banked $100M of FY2026 cost savings, reduced FY2026 capex to about $400M, and launched the Grown In Idaho brand nationally. Internationally, net sales declined 1% on a 7% price-mix decline, pressured by a European potato surplus, soft restaurant traffic and the Middle East conflict, and the Monroe, Argentina plant was closed as operations consolidate into the new Mar del Plata facility.
Guidance delta
raised
Key takeaways
- North America grew volume 12% and net sales 5%, driving a raise to FY2026 net-sales and EBITDA guidance
- International net sales fell 1% on a 7% price-mix decline amid a European potato surplus, soft traffic and Middle East conflict
- $100M of FY2026 cost savings achieved under Focus to Win, ahead of a $250M FY2028 target
- FY2026 capex cut to about $400M; a $0.38 per-share dividend was declared with buybacks continuing
- EPS of $0.72 beat the $0.63 estimate and revenue of $1.56B topped consensus
Management priorities
- Execute the Focus to Win strategy with emphasis on customer partnerships and share gains
- Roll out the Grown In Idaho brand nationally with new packaging
- Continue cost-saving initiatives targeting supply-chain and SG&A efficiency
- Maintain disciplined capex focused on maintenance, modernization and environmental projects
- Manage Middle East exposure while hedging key commodity inputs
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$43.58Current
$48Low
$64.53Average
$132High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2019 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 22, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 16, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $43.58. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $53.11 | +26.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $57 | $53.11 | +30.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $52 | $49.64 | +19.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $57 | $49.58 | +30.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.58 | +19.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $56 | $49.58 | +28.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $50 | $46.6 | +14.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $48 | $45.23 | +10.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $46.51 | +23.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $46 | $41.84 | +5.6% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.8 | +26.2% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.64 | +10.1% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.13 | +12.4% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.94 | +14.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.01 | +44.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $58.08 | +51.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $58.08 | +56.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $58.08 | +49.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $56 | $52.49 | +28.5% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $57 | $52.68 | +30.8% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $90 | $77.28 | +106.5% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $80 | $78.22 | +83.6% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $87 | $78.22 | +99.6% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $74 | $67.61 | +69.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $77 | $66.58 | +76.7% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $65.44 | +72.1% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $96 | $79.07 | +120.3% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $105 | $79.78 | +140.9% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $98 | $81.53 | +124.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $132 | $81.53 | +202.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $81.53 | +163.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.68 | +145.5% | Jan 6, 2023 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
Historical context
All LW earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
| BF-A Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | — | Brown-Forman holds FY27 outlook as RTD innovation offsets barrel pressure |
| BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | — | Brown-Forman maintains FY27 outlook as innovation offsets pressure |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +23.4% | +2.5% | Dollar General Raises FY2026 Outlook After Strong Q2 |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the LW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T20:31:16.439093+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T20:31:16.435831+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.