Lam Research Corporation · LRCX · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025

Lam Research: Record Quarter, Raised Outlook, China Risks Remain

The evidence supports a constructive but qualified view: demand tied to gate-all-around, advanced packaging, NAND upgrades, and equipment intelligence remains strong, while China normalization, tariff exposure, and a decreasing capex outlook challenge the durability of growth and margins.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $434.56B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.33 Consensus $1.21
EPS surprise +9.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $5.17B Consensus $5.00B
Revenue surprise +3.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -4.3% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -3.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +9.8% Up to 20 sessions
LRCXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Versus the prior analysis, the quarter showed a raised guidance sentiment and a record 50.3% gross margin, but the capex outlook shifted from increasing to decreasing. China represented 35% of revenue and is expected to normalize in the December quarter.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was raised; management's September outlook called for $5.2 billion of revenue, approximately 50% gross margin, 34% operating margin, and $1.20 EPS.

Key takeaways

  • The quarter delivered record revenue of $5.17 billion and EPS above the midpoint of guidance.
  • Gross margin reached 50.3%, supported by product mix and operational efficiencies.
  • Management cited demand for gate-all-around, ALD Moly, NAND upgrades, and advanced packaging, while expecting China revenue to normalize in the December quarter.

Management priorities

  • Ramp Halo ALD Moly production for NAND and logic customers
  • Expand Dextro cobots and SABRE 3D capabilities
  • Advance Vantex and Akara systems while investing in R&D

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LRCX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $4B Q3 '24 actual $4B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $4B Q4 '24 actual $4B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $4B Q1 '25 actual $4B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5B Q4 '25 actual $5B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '26 actual $5B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5B Q2 '26 actual $5B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $6B Q3 '26 actual $6B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $7B Q4 '26 actual $7B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $8B Q2 '27 estimate $8B Q3 '27 estimate $8B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish3880.9%
Neutral817.0%
Bearish12.1%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$347.49Current
$54.3Low
$241.07Average
$575High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
B. Riley Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 1, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $347.49. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Fundamental ResearchAnalyst unavailable$390$336.72 +12.2%Oct 1, 2026
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$420$320.42 +20.9%Sep 9, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$425$301.49 +22.3%Sep 1, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$365$310.17 +5.0%Aug 25, 2026
Deutsche BankMelissa Weathers$320$303.82 -7.9%Jul 30, 2026
See 132 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Lam Research Corporation is a prominent supplier of equipment vital for semiconductor processing, encompassing its design, production, sales, repair, and ongoing maintenance. These sophisticated systems are fundamental for the creation of integrated circuits. The company's extensive product catalog features a variety of deposition technologies. For tungsten metallization, they provide ALTUS systems that deposit conformal films. SABRE products excel in electrochemical deposition, crucial for copper interconnect transitions and enabling copper damascene manufacturing. SOLA utilizes ultraviolet thermal processing for film treatments, while VECTOR delivers plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and atomic layer deposition (ALD) solutions. Furthermore, SPEED addresses gapfill applications with its high-density plasma CVD products, and Striker is engineered for single-wafer atomic layer deposition of dielectric films.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:22.444131+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T12:26:04.455801+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T12:26:04.452562+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.