Eli Lilly and Company · LLY · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Lilly raises guidance as obesity portfolio drives Q2 growth

The Q2 evidence supports a constructive one-year growth case for Lilly: obesity-product momentum, higher guidance, international expansion and pipeline progress outweighed the identified pricing, competition and regulatory risks in this quarter.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $1096.57B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $8.38 Consensus $6.40
EPS surprise +30.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $22.97B Consensus $20.82B
Revenue surprise +10.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +4.9% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +5.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -0.8% Up to 20 sessions
LLYSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Versus the prior quarter, Lilly reported 48% year-over-year revenue growth, raised full-year guidance, and highlighted Foundayo adoption, new Phase 3 data, additional approvals and acquisitions. The main unresolved issues remain pricing durability, competitive pressure and retatrutide’s regulatory path.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $85-$87 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.5-$36.5.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue grew 48% year over year, led by Zepbound, Mounjaro and Foundayo.
  • Full-year revenue guidance rose by $2.5 billion; non-GAAP EPS guidance was raised to $35.5-$36.5.
  • Foundayo prescriber count increased from 8,000 to 36,000, while pipeline and manufacturing investment expanded.

Management priorities

  • Scale Foundayo in the U.S. and additional international markets
  • Advance retatrutide and other Phase 3 programs
  • Expand manufacturing capacity and pursue complementary business development

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LLY EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.22 Q4 '23 actual $2.49, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.46 Q1 '24 actual $2.58, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.60 Q2 '24 actual $3.92, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.47 Q3 '24 actual $1.18, miss Q2 '25 estimate $5.60 Q2 '25 actual $6.31, beat Q3 '25 estimate $5.69 Q3 '25 actual $7.02, beat Q4 '25 estimate $6.91 Q4 '25 actual $7.54, beat Q1 '26 estimate $6.97 Q1 '26 actual $8.55, beat Q2 '26 estimate $6.40 Q2 '26 actual $8.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $9.85 Q4 '26 estimate $9.93 Q1 '27 estimate $9.80
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish3373.3%
Neutral920.0%
Bearish36.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$1,172.06Current
$265Low
$985.42Average
$1,500High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainSep 18, 2026
HSBC Reduce ReduceMaintainSep 10, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 7, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,172.06. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimSeamus Fernandez$1,284$1,152.13 +9.6%Sep 18, 2026
Berenberg BankKerry Holford$1,400$1,137.75 +19.4%Sep 15, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$940$1,124.16 -19.8%Sep 10, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$1,376$1,177.33 +17.4%Aug 7, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$1,410$1,181 +20.3%Aug 6, 2026
See 126 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-05T22:12:58.954441+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-10T01:23:13.706414+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T16:40:51.001837+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T16:40:50.999113+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.