Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish3373.3%
Neutral920.0%
Bearish36.7%
Eli Lilly and Company · LLY · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Lilly pairs strong incretin growth with major 2026 execution demands
The supplied analysis supports the view that strong incretin demand and earnings growth can support Lilly's trajectory over the next year. The key test is whether volume growth and new launches offset pricing pressure, reimbursement constraints, competition, and execution risk.
Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare
$1117.00B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$7.54
Consensus $6.91
EPS surprise
+9.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$19.29B
Consensus $17.94B
Revenue surprise
+7.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+10.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-11.2%
Up to 20 sessions
LLYSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LLY FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LLY rise 10.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in LLY's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for LLY after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds a 2026 outlook centered on continued Mounjaro and Zepbound expansion, a potential Orforglipron launch, broader access initiatives, manufacturing investment, and an NVIDIA AI collaboration. Compared with the prior analysis, the focus shifts from raising near-term guidance and preparing the pipeline toward executing a larger-scale 2026 growth plan.
Guidance delta
Management's supplied analysis describes 2026 guidance of $80-$83 billion in revenue and $33.50-$35 in EPS, following strong 2025 growth. The direction is raised versus the prior-quarter analysis.
Key takeaways
- Mounjaro and Zepbound remain the central growth drivers, supported by broader access and international rollout.
- The supplied analysis points to 2026 revenue guidance of $80-$83 billion and EPS guidance of $33.50-$35.
- Orforglipron is positioned as a major next step in oral obesity treatment, but regulatory and launch timing matter.
- Manufacturing expansion and the NVIDIA AI collaboration increase the investment and execution agenda.
- Lower realized prices, reimbursement limits, competition, and launch execution are the main counterweights.
Management priorities
- Expand Mounjaro and Zepbound access and international adoption.
- Advance Orforglipron and the broader oral GLP-1 pipeline.
- Build manufacturing capacity in the US and Europe.
- Use AI collaboration and additional clinical readouts to support pipeline productivity.
- Execute access agreements and new product launches.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,184.63Previous close
$265Low
$985.42Average
$1,500High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| HSBC | Reduce | Reduce | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 14, 2024 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 3, 2024 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Daiwa Capital | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Dec 21, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| SVB Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2023 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Mizuho | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2022 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 10, 2019 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Leerink Swann | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2016 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 17, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2014 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 23, 2014 |
| CLSA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 17, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $1,184.63. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | Seamus Fernandez | $1,284 | $1,152.13 | +8.4% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,400 | $1,137.75 | +18.2% | Sep 15, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $940 | $1,124.16 | -20.7% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,376 | $1,177.33 | +16.2% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $1,410 | $1,181 | +19.0% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,419 | $1,169.86 | +19.8% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $1,330 | $1,169.86 | +12.3% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,400 | $1,169.86 | +18.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,385 | $1,185.08 | +16.9% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,425 | $1,189.91 | +20.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $1,273 | $1,188.58 | +7.5% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,222.12 | +15.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,227.07 | +15.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,229.22 | +26.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,347 | $1,235.56 | +13.7% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,210.5 | +14.0% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $1,232 | $1,117.26 | +4.0% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,135 | $1,111.67 | -4.2% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,143.35 | +14.0% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $1,251 | $1,065 | +5.6% | May 26, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $1,119 | $1,065 | -5.5% | May 26, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,037.82 | +14.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Emily Field | $1,400 | $967.93 | +18.2% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,344 | $961.56 | +13.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Carter Gould | $1,230 | $970.68 | +3.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,327 | $939.31 | +12.0% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $1,300 | $1,000.78 | +9.7% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | James Shin | $1,285 | $990.31 | +8.5% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,313 | $972.5 | +10.8% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Trung Huynh | $1,250 | $1,042.15 | +5.5% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,023.22 | +14.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ilya Zubkov | $1,200 | $1,025 | +1.3% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $1,037.12 | +9.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,281 | $1,027.51 | +8.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,260 | $1,107.12 | +6.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $1,280 | $1,107.12 | +8.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,300 | $1,107.12 | +9.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $1,161 | $1,038.4 | -2.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Yee | $1,250 | $1,064.04 | +5.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $1,234 | $1,080.36 | +4.2% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Daiwa | Narumi Nakagiri | $1,230 | $1,062.71 | +3.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,145 | $1,039.04 | -3.3% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $1,070 | $981.67 | -9.7% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,200 | $1,033.56 | +1.3% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $1,163 | $1,046.12 | -1.8% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,100 | $1,058.48 | -7.1% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| National Bank | Tim Anderson | $1,286 | $1,057.89 | +8.6% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $1,059.7 | +9.7% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,290 | $1,059.7 | +8.9% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Srikripa Devarakonda | $1,182 | $1,049.6 | -0.2% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ilya Zubkov | $950 | $969.84 | -19.8% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $985 | $839.16 | -16.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $925 | $845.72 | -21.9% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Q3 Mounjaro | $948 | $843.63 | -20.0% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $830 | $760.13 | -29.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Narumi Nakagiri | $700 | $701.23 | -40.9% | Aug 17, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Carter Gould | $825 | $660.26 | -30.4% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Market Perform | $715 | $640.86 | -39.6% | Aug 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Trung Huynh | $1,050 | $823.62 | -11.4% | May 2, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $877.29 | -40.9% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,146 | $912.76 | -3.3% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Andrew Berens | $950 | $740.15 | -19.8% | Jan 17, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $970 | $746.74 | -18.1% | Jan 16, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $1,010 | $829.74 | -14.7% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Leerink Partners | Andrew Berens | $990 | $932.06 | -16.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Peter Verdult | $1,060 | $935.02 | -10.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,106 | $957.51 | -6.6% | Aug 27, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,050 | $908.05 | -11.4% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | James Shin | $1,025 | $891.68 | -13.5% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chris Shibutani | $856 | $891.68 | -27.7% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $1,000 | $845.31 | -15.6% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $1,101 | $845.31 | -7.1% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Geoff Meacham | $1,150 | $845.31 | -2.9% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,083 | $939.78 | -8.6% | Jul 11, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,000 | $939.78 | -15.6% | Jul 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,023 | $906.15 | -13.6% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $1,015 | $883.88 | -14.3% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $957 | $837.29 | -19.2% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Barclays | Geoff Meacham | $913 | $820.34 | -22.9% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chris Shibutani | $785 | $818.41 | -33.7% | May 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $925 | $805.06 | -21.9% | May 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $915 | $770 | -22.8% | May 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $875 | $771.12 | -26.1% | May 16, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Toung | $840 | $757.7 | -29.1% | May 14, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,001 | $781.1 | -15.5% | May 1, 2024 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Louise Chen | $885 | $781.1 | -25.3% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $900 | $748.4 | -24.0% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | James Shin | $535 | $706.2 | -54.8% | Feb 6, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Andrew Baum | $675 | $581.51 | -43.0% | Dec 28, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Phung | $673 | $601.49 | -43.2% | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $617 | $526.4 | -47.9% | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $337.54 | -69.6% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $330.7 | -61.6% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $366.71 | -66.2% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Cowen Cowen | $430 | $359.87 | -63.7% | Dec 17, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $360.01 | -65.4% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $363.5 | -64.5% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $361.99 | -62.9% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $370.1 | -68.3% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $401 | $372.39 | -66.1% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $446 | $368.01 | -62.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $367.74 | -66.2% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $360.77 | -66.7% | Nov 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $436 | $354.66 | -63.2% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| UBS | Colin Bristow Bristow | $336 | $323.35 | -71.6% | Oct 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Navin Jacob | $363 | $296.48 | -69.4% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $412 | $310.91 | -65.2% | Sep 7, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $396 | $306.38 | -66.6% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $327.95 | -66.7% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $330.15 | -70.0% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $307.73 | -70.0% | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $341 | $302.76 | -71.2% | May 23, 2022 |
| UBS | Navin Jacob | $293 | $289.23 | -75.3% | May 9, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $358 | $296.9 | -69.8% | May 8, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vamil Divan | $356 | $289.56 | -69.9% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $305 | $292.13 | -74.3% | Apr 30, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $369 | $293.02 | -68.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $364 | $308.96 | -69.3% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Geoff Meacham | $315 | $289.02 | -73.4% | Mar 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $265 | $242.27 | -77.6% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Louise Chen | $335 | $245.1 | -71.7% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $280 | $265.7 | -76.4% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Aaron Gal | $300 | $270.6 | -74.7% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Carter Gould | $325 | $262.38 | -72.6% | Dec 20, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chris Shibutani | $236 | $266.31 | -80.1% | Dec 17, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Chris Schott | $325 | $277.88 | -72.6% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Andrew Baum | $265 | $244.09 | -77.6% | Dec 7, 2021 |
| UBS | Navin Jacob | $267 | $253.77 | -77.5% | Nov 29, 2021 |
| Guggenheim | Seamus Fernandez | $266 | $228.47 | -77.5% | Sep 21, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Steve Scala | $300 | $260.37 | -74.7% | Aug 30, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Toung | $300 | $264.33 | -74.7% | Aug 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LLY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationEli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary…
Historical context
All LLY earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.7% | -14.7% | CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue |
| MDT Medtronic plc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +1.5% | Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms |
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Get the LLY recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T07:16:28.538759+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T07:16:28.535967+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.