Eli Lilly and Company · LLY · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Lilly raises guidance as Mounjaro and Zepbound drive strong growth

The quarter supports the view that earnings growth and resilient demand can underpin the business over the next year: revenue growth accelerated, Mounjaro and Zepbound demand remained strong, and management raised full-year guidance. The thesis still depends on successful orforglipron execution, international reimbursement, pricing discipline, and continued pipeline progress.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $1076.27B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.02 Consensus $5.69
EPS surprise +23.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $17.60B Consensus $16.05B
Revenue surprise +9.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.8% Event window
SPY move -1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +4.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +27.3% Up to 20 sessions
LLYSPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, reported revenue growth increased from 38% to 54%, full-year guidance was raised again, and the pipeline moved closer to commercialization with orforglipron positioned for a U.S. launch next year. Manufacturing plans also expanded, while pricing and reimbursement concerns remained.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $63-$63.5 billion and EPS guidance to $23-$23.70.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue grew 54% year over year, with key products more than doubling sales.
  • Mounjaro and Zepbound remained the main growth drivers, supported by international expansion.
  • Orforglipron showed strong Phase III results and is positioned for a U.S. launch next year, with global submissions underway.
  • New U.S. active pharmaceutical ingredient facilities and Puerto Rico expansion are intended to support portfolio growth.
  • The main counterweights are pricing and reimbursement pressure, regulatory timing, and intensifying GLP-1 competition.

Management priorities

  • Scale Mounjaro and Zepbound globally, including expansion across 55 countries.
  • Advance orforglipron, retatrutide, muvalaplin, and other late-stage pipeline programs through regulatory and clinical milestones.
  • Expand U.S. and Puerto Rico manufacturing capacity.
  • Continue development of oncology, neuroscience, cardiometabolic, and immunology programs.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LLY EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.22 Q4 '23 actual $2.49, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.46 Q1 '24 actual $2.58, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.60 Q2 '24 actual $3.92, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.47 Q3 '24 actual $1.18, miss Q2 '25 estimate $5.60 Q2 '25 actual $6.31, beat Q3 '25 estimate $5.69 Q3 '25 actual $7.02, beat Q4 '25 estimate $6.91 Q4 '25 actual $7.54, beat Q1 '26 estimate $6.97 Q1 '26 actual $8.55, beat Q2 '26 estimate $6.40 Q2 '26 actual $8.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $9.92 Q4 '26 estimate $9.93 Q1 '27 estimate $9.26
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish3373.3%
Neutral920.0%
Bearish36.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$1,142.85Current
$265Low
$985.42Average
$1,500High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 28, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainSep 22, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainSep 18, 2026
HSBC Reduce ReduceMaintainSep 10, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 7, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,142.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimSeamus Fernandez$1,284$1,152.13 +12.4%Sep 18, 2026
Berenberg BankKerry Holford$1,400$1,137.75 +22.5%Sep 15, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$940$1,124.16 -17.7%Sep 10, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$1,376$1,177.33 +20.4%Aug 7, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$1,410$1,181 +23.4%Aug 6, 2026
See 126 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary…

Historical context

All LLY earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T07:30:45.167525+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T07:30:45.164854+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.