Eli Lilly and Company · LLY · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Lilly Raises Guidance as Incretin Growth and Pipeline Advance

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: strong incretin demand, raised guidance, expanding manufacturing capacity, and pipeline progress may support continued growth. The main tests are pricing and payer pressure, competition, regulatory execution, and supply expansion.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $1090.06B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $6.31 Consensus $5.60
EPS surprise +12.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.56B Consensus $14.70B
Revenue surprise +5.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -14.1% Event window
SPY move -0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -14.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 7.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +13.5% Up to 20 sessions
LLYSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The supplied analysis points to stronger-than-expected Q2 results, raised 2025 guidance, positive late-stage pipeline data, new acquisitions, and expanded manufacturing plans. It also highlights greater attention to pricing, payer access, and competition.

Guidance delta

Management raised 2025 revenue guidance to $60–$62 billion and EPS guidance to $21.75–$23, according to the supplied transcript analysis.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis says Q2 revenue rose 38% year over year, led by Zepbound and Mounjaro.
  • Management highlighted U.S. incretin share gains, oral orforglipron Phase III results, and tirzepatide cardiovascular-outcome data.
  • Capacity expansion, LillyDirect, and acquisitions broaden the company’s commercial and pipeline plans.

Management priorities

  • Expand Zepbound and Mounjaro globally while increasing manufacturing capacity.
  • Advance regulatory submissions for orforglipron and tirzepatide cardiovascular-outcome data.
  • Use LillyDirect, value-based pricing, and acquired assets to broaden access and the pipeline.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LLY REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $9B Q1 '24 actual $9B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $10B Q2 '24 actual $11B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $12B Q3 '24 actual $11B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $15B Q2 '25 actual $16B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $16B Q3 '25 actual $18B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $18B Q4 '25 actual $19B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $18B Q1 '26 actual $20B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $21B Q2 '26 actual $23B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $22B Q4 '26 estimate $23B Q1 '27 estimate $21B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish3373.3%
Neutral920.0%
Bearish36.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$1,188.72Current
$265Low
$985.42Average
$1,500High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 28, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainSep 22, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainSep 18, 2026
HSBC Reduce ReduceMaintainSep 10, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 7, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,188.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimSeamus Fernandez$1,284$1,152.13 +8.0%Sep 18, 2026
Berenberg BankKerry Holford$1,400$1,137.75 +17.8%Sep 15, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$940$1,124.16 -20.9%Sep 10, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$1,376$1,177.33 +15.8%Aug 7, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$1,410$1,181 +18.6%Aug 6, 2026
See 126 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary…

Historical context

All LLY earnings

Healthcare peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.7% -14.7% CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue
MDT Medtronic plc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +1.5% Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T19:10:42.878517+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T19:10:42.875656+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.