Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish3373.3%
Neutral920.0%
Bearish36.7%
Eli Lilly and Company · LLY · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Lilly: Strong incretin growth, with pricing and execution risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive growth thesis for Lilly: incretin demand, new indications, international expansion, and manufacturing investment are intended to sustain growth. The thesis remains conditional on payer access, pricing, supply, pipeline execution, and competition.
Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare
$1178.21B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $5.45
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $13.72B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.1%
Up to 20 sessions
LLYSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LLY FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LLY's +3.3% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in LLY's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for LLY after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis emphasizes continued strong incretin momentum, additional regulatory progress, further Phase III activity, and a larger manufacturing footprint. Guidance sentiment moved from raised in the prior analysis to maintained in the current analysis, while pricing, payer, litigation, and execution concerns remain.
Guidance delta
Maintained, according to the supplied transcript analysis; the analysis describes a 2025 outlook targeting 32% revenue growth and continued margin expansion.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes 45% year-over-year Q4 revenue growth, with new products contributing more than $5.6 billion.
- Management highlighted pipeline progress, including Phase III starts and approvals for Kisunla, Ebglyss, and Zepbound OSA.
- The analysis identifies manufacturing expansion, geographic launches, and broader access as key supports for continued growth.
- The main offsets are pricing and payer pressure, compounding litigation, competition, and execution risk on manufacturing investment.
Management priorities
- Expand Mounjaro and Zepbound access and launch into additional markets.
- Advance orforglipron and other Phase III programs toward future launches.
- Expand manufacturing capacity across the planned site network.
- Use direct-to-consumer access, payer work, collaborations, and strategic transactions to support growth.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,251.61Previous close
$265Low
$989.3Average
$1,500High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| HSBC | Reduce | Reduce | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 14, 2024 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 3, 2024 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Daiwa Capital | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Dec 21, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| SVB Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2023 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Mizuho | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2022 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 10, 2019 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Leerink Swann | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2016 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 17, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2014 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 23, 2014 |
| CLSA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 17, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $1,251.61. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Carter Gould | $1,440 | $1,188.72 | +15.1% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,430 | $1,184.48 | +14.3% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Seamus Fernandez | $1,284 | $1,152.13 | +2.6% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,400 | $1,137.75 | +11.9% | Sep 15, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $940 | $1,124.16 | -24.9% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,376 | $1,177.33 | +9.9% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $1,410 | $1,181 | +12.7% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,419 | $1,169.86 | +13.4% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $1,330 | $1,169.86 | +6.3% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,400 | $1,169.86 | +11.9% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,385 | $1,185.08 | +10.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,425 | $1,189.91 | +13.9% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $1,273 | $1,188.58 | +1.7% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,222.12 | +9.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,227.07 | +9.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,229.22 | +19.8% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,347 | $1,235.56 | +7.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,210.5 | +7.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $1,232 | $1,117.26 | -1.6% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,135 | $1,111.67 | -9.3% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,143.35 | +7.9% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $1,251 | $1,065 | -0.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $1,119 | $1,065 | -10.6% | May 26, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,037.82 | +7.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Emily Field | $1,400 | $967.93 | +11.9% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,344 | $961.56 | +7.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Carter Gould | $1,230 | $970.68 | -1.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,327 | $939.31 | +6.0% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $1,300 | $1,000.78 | +3.9% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | James Shin | $1,285 | $990.31 | +2.7% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,313 | $972.5 | +4.9% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Trung Huynh | $1,250 | $1,042.15 | -0.1% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $1,350 | $1,023.22 | +7.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ilya Zubkov | $1,200 | $1,025 | -4.1% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $1,037.12 | +3.9% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,281 | $1,027.51 | +2.3% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,260 | $1,107.12 | +0.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $1,280 | $1,107.12 | +2.3% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,300 | $1,107.12 | +3.9% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $1,161 | $1,038.4 | -7.2% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Yee | $1,250 | $1,064.04 | -0.1% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $1,234 | $1,080.36 | -1.4% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Daiwa | Narumi Nakagiri | $1,230 | $1,062.71 | -1.7% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,145 | $1,039.04 | -8.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $1,070 | $981.67 | -14.5% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,200 | $1,033.56 | -4.1% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $1,163 | $1,046.12 | -7.1% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,100 | $1,058.48 | -12.1% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| National Bank | Tim Anderson | $1,286 | $1,057.89 | +2.7% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $1,059.7 | +3.9% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,290 | $1,059.7 | +3.1% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Srikripa Devarakonda | $1,182 | $1,049.6 | -5.6% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ilya Zubkov | $950 | $969.84 | -24.1% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $985 | $839.16 | -21.3% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $925 | $845.72 | -26.1% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Q3 Mounjaro | $948 | $843.63 | -24.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $830 | $760.13 | -33.7% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Narumi Nakagiri | $700 | $701.23 | -44.1% | Aug 17, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Carter Gould | $825 | $660.26 | -34.1% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Market Perform | $715 | $640.86 | -42.9% | Aug 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Trung Huynh | $1,050 | $823.62 | -16.1% | May 2, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $877.29 | -44.1% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,146 | $912.76 | -8.4% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Andrew Berens | $950 | $740.15 | -24.1% | Jan 17, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $970 | $746.74 | -22.5% | Jan 16, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $1,010 | $829.74 | -19.3% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Leerink Partners | Andrew Berens | $990 | $932.06 | -20.9% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Peter Verdult | $1,060 | $935.02 | -15.3% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,106 | $957.51 | -11.6% | Aug 27, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,050 | $908.05 | -16.1% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | James Shin | $1,025 | $891.68 | -18.1% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chris Shibutani | $856 | $891.68 | -31.6% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $1,000 | $845.31 | -20.1% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $1,101 | $845.31 | -12.0% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Geoff Meacham | $1,150 | $845.31 | -8.1% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,083 | $939.78 | -13.5% | Jul 11, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kerry Holford | $1,000 | $939.78 | -20.1% | Jul 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $1,023 | $906.15 | -18.3% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $1,015 | $883.88 | -18.9% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $957 | $837.29 | -23.5% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Barclays | Geoff Meacham | $913 | $820.34 | -27.1% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chris Shibutani | $785 | $818.41 | -37.3% | May 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $925 | $805.06 | -26.1% | May 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Akash Tewari | $915 | $770 | -26.9% | May 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $875 | $771.12 | -30.1% | May 16, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Toung | $840 | $757.7 | -32.9% | May 14, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Evan Seigerman | $1,001 | $781.1 | -20.0% | May 1, 2024 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Louise Chen | $885 | $781.1 | -29.3% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $900 | $748.4 | -28.1% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | James Shin | $535 | $706.2 | -57.3% | Feb 6, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Andrew Baum | $675 | $581.51 | -46.1% | Dec 28, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Phung | $673 | $601.49 | -46.2% | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Louise Chen | $630 | $526.4 | -49.7% | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $337.54 | -71.2% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $330.7 | -63.6% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $366.71 | -68.0% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Cowen Cowen | $430 | $359.87 | -65.6% | Dec 17, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $360.01 | -67.2% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $363.5 | -66.4% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $361.99 | -64.8% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $370.1 | -70.0% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $401 | $372.39 | -68.0% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $446 | $368.01 | -64.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $367.74 | -68.0% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $360.77 | -68.4% | Nov 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $436 | $354.66 | -65.2% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| UBS | Colin Bristow Bristow | $336 | $323.35 | -73.2% | Oct 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Navin Jacob | $363 | $296.48 | -71.0% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $412 | $310.91 | -67.1% | Sep 7, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $396 | $306.38 | -68.4% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $327.95 | -68.4% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $330.15 | -71.6% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $307.73 | -71.6% | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | David Risinger | $341 | $302.76 | -72.8% | May 23, 2022 |
| UBS | Navin Jacob | $293 | $289.23 | -76.6% | May 9, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Evan David Seigerman | $358 | $296.9 | -71.4% | May 8, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vamil Divan | $356 | $289.56 | -71.6% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $305 | $292.13 | -75.6% | Apr 30, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $369 | $293.02 | -70.5% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Terence Flynn | $364 | $308.96 | -70.9% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Geoff Meacham | $315 | $289.02 | -74.8% | Mar 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $265 | $242.27 | -78.8% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Louise Chen | $335 | $245.1 | -73.2% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Mohit Bansal | $280 | $265.7 | -77.6% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Aaron Gal | $300 | $270.6 | -76.0% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Carter Gould | $325 | $262.38 | -74.0% | Dec 20, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chris Shibutani | $236 | $266.31 | -81.1% | Dec 17, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Chris Schott | $325 | $277.88 | -74.0% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Andrew Baum | $265 | $244.09 | -78.8% | Dec 7, 2021 |
| UBS | Navin Jacob | $267 | $253.77 | -78.7% | Nov 29, 2021 |
| Guggenheim | Seamus Fernandez | $266 | $228.47 | -78.7% | Sep 21, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Steve Scala | $300 | $260.37 | -76.0% | Aug 30, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Toung | $300 | $264.33 | -76.0% | Aug 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LLY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationEli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-23T00:02:36.799981+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T10:00:42.670149+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T10:00:42.667498+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.