Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold3 ratings
Bullish133.3%
Neutral266.7%
Bearish00.0%
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz · KSPI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Kaspi maintains FY outlook as e-commerce and fintech expand
The quarter supports a constructive operating case: strong e-commerce growth, fintech expansion and maintained FY guidance outweighed payments mix pressure. The main test is whether Turkey investment and integration can progress toward breakeven without undermining margins.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$17.84B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.63
Consensus $2.59
EPS surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.26B
Consensus $2.15B
Revenue surprise
+4.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.0%
Up to 20 sessions
KSPISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KSPI FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KSPI fall 0.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in KSPI's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for KSPI after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Kaspi reported stronger e-commerce momentum and a higher take rate, included a full quarter of Hepsiburada results, and introduced planned AI agents plus a completed data-driven logistics platform. Payments growth remained positive but mix continued to pressure take rate.
Guidance delta
Management maintained FY guidance for GMV growth of 20% and TPV growth of 15%; Turkey EBITDA breakeven remains a stated target.
Key takeaways
- E-commerce GMV increased 41% year over year, with transactions up 43% and take rate expanding to 15.8%.
- Payments TPV grew 14%, while fintech loan portfolio growth of 23% helped drive fintech revenue growth of 25%.
- Hepsiburada was included for a full three-month reporting window in Q1, affecting comparisons.
- Management highlighted planned AI agents, data-driven logistics and continued Turkey investment.
Management priorities
- Increase consumer purchase frequency and Super App engagement.
- Scale AI-enabled logistics and planned e-commerce agents.
- Expand advertising, delivery and other value-added services.
- Continue Turkey investment while targeting EBITDA breakeven.
- Maintain the dividend policy while deploying growth capital.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$93.58Current
$100Low
$117.4Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 20, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $93.58. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $106.46 | +22.9% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $95.64 | +6.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.4 | +1.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $76.17 | -7.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mikhail Butkov | $107 | $76.85 | +14.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nida Iqbal | $115 | $84.97 | +22.9% | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Darrin Peller | $150 | $124.36 | +60.3% | May 29, 2024 |
Track every rating change on KSPI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, established in 2008 and based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, operates alongside its subsidiaries to deliver a comprehensive suite of digital services encompassing payments, e-commerce, and financial technology. These offerings cater to both individual consumers and a diverse range of merchants. The company's operations are structured around three core platforms: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments Platform is designed to streamline transactions between customers and businesses. For consumers, it facilitates shopping payments, routine bill settlements, and peer-to-peer money transfers. For merchants, it enables them to accept payments both online and in-store, generate and manage invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor their sales performance. This platform also leverages proprietary data to inform strategic business decisions across various operational areas. The Marketplace Platform functions as an integrated hub, connecting online and physical retailers with consumers.…
Historical context
All KSPI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
| SAIL SailPoint, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | -1.2% | SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +22.0% | -10.4% | Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.4% | +3.7% | DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook |
| IOT Samsara Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +25.0% | +3.7% | Samsara: AI adoption expands as FY27 guidance holds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
Get the KSPI recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T21:17:34.229911+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T14:41:00.358199+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T14:41:00.355222+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.