Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold3 ratings
Bullish133.3%
Neutral266.7%
Bearish00.0%
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz · KSPI · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Kaspi Maintains Guidance as Turkey Investment Raises Execution Risks
Kaspi's earnings support a resilience thesis: underlying profit growth, strong Kazakhstan market positions and early Pay-by-Palm adoption provide operating support. The countercase is that Turkey investment, regulatory timing and macro pressure could limit the pace at which that resilience converts into broader earnings growth.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$17.49B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.80
Consensus $3.25
EPS surprise
-13.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.26B
Consensus $2.33B
Revenue surprise
-3.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+10.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.4%
Up to 20 sessions
KSPISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KSPI FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KSPI rise 10.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in KSPI's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for KSPI after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management maintained guidance while emphasizing continued investment in Turkey, including plans linked to a future full banking license. Pay-by-Palm adoption and the path toward Hepsiburada EBITDA breakeven were highlighted as developments, while macro and regulatory risks remained material.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management's guidance incorporates Kazakhstan and Turkey operations.
Key takeaways
- Underlying net profit grew 18% year over year despite macro headwinds.
- Pay-by-Palm reached 0.5 million users and 6,000 merchants in Almaty within three months, according to management's analysis.
- Marketplace growth benefited from e-commerce and e-grocery, while take rates reached approximately 13%.
- Hepsiburada remains targeted for EBITDA breakeven in 2026, with continued investment in delivery, AI and consumer engagement.
- The reported EPS and revenue were below the supplied consensus estimates, tempering the otherwise resilient operating picture.
Management priorities
- Expand Pay-by-Palm to additional Kazakh cities
- Invest in delivery speed and logistics capacity in Turkey
- Pursue a full suite of banking products pending a Turkish banking license
- Develop AI assistance for merchants and consumers
- Increase engaged consumers and purchase frequency
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$94.05Current
$100Low
$117.4Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 20, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $94.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $106.46 | +22.3% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $95.64 | +6.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.4 | +1.0% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $76.17 | -7.5% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mikhail Butkov | $107 | $76.85 | +13.8% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nida Iqbal | $115 | $84.97 | +22.3% | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Darrin Peller | $150 | $124.36 | +59.5% | May 29, 2024 |
Track every rating change on KSPI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, established in 2008 and based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, operates alongside its subsidiaries to deliver a comprehensive suite of digital services encompassing payments, e-commerce, and financial technology. These offerings cater to both individual consumers and a diverse range of merchants. The company's operations are structured around three core platforms: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments Platform is designed to streamline transactions between customers and businesses. For consumers, it facilitates shopping payments, routine bill settlements, and peer-to-peer money transfers. For merchants, it enables them to accept payments both online and in-store, generate and manage invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor their sales performance. This platform also leverages proprietary data to inform strategic business decisions across various operational areas. The Marketplace Platform functions as an integrated hub, connecting online and physical retailers with consumers.…
Historical context
All KSPI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the KSPI recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T22:46:12.788921+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T22:46:12.786170+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.