Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. · KNX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Knight-Swift sees tighter truckload market, raises Q2 EPS view

The quarter provides partial support for a recovery case: management reported tighter truckload conditions, improving rate activity and LTL network benefits, and raised near-term EPS guidance. The evidence is not yet conclusive because adjusted operating performance remains sensitive to weather, fuel, claims, driver availability and the pace of margin normalization.

Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials $10.29B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.09 Consensus $0.09
EPS surprise +2.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.85B Consensus $1.86B
Revenue surprise -0.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.8% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move +3.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.8% Up to 20 sessions
KNXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management shifted from maintained guidance and planned efficiency initiatives to raised Q2 EPS guidance, citing a tighter truckload market, stronger bid activity and improving LTL shipment characteristics. The company also emphasized continued network expansion, contract review, recruiting investment and stricter carrier qualification.

Guidance delta

Management raised Q2 EPS guidance to $0.45-$0.49, pointing to an expected sequential earnings improvement after a weather-impacted quarter.

Key takeaways

  • Management described a tightening one-way truckload market and mid-single-digit to low-double-digit rate increases.
  • LTL is seeing higher weight per shipment and longer hauls as the network becomes more national.
  • Logistics remains pressured by carrier qualification constraints but management expects margin recovery as spot rates improve.
  • The central test is whether rate gains and network changes translate into sustained margin normalization.

Management priorities

  • Expand the national network and add doors at pinch-point locations.
  • Review stale contracts and target the bottom 20% of performance.
  • Invest in driver academies, recruiting and AI-enabled talent sourcing.
  • Use technology to improve logistics efficiency.
  • Maintain stricter carrier qualification standards.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
KNX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.47 Q4 '23 actual $0.09, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.30 Q1 '24 actual $0.12, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.27 Q2 '24 actual $0.24, miss Q3 '24 estimate $0.33 Q3 '24 actual $0.34, match Q2 '25 estimate $0.34 Q2 '25 actual $0.35, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.37 Q3 '25 actual $0.32, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.36 Q4 '25 actual $0.31, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.09 Q1 '26 actual $0.09, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.51 Q2 '26 actual $0.63, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.76 Q3 '26 actual $0.83, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.82 Q1 '27 estimate $0.73 Q2 '27 estimate $1.01 Q3 '27 estimate $1.12
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy35 ratings
Bullish2262.9%
Neutral1234.3%
Bearish12.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$63.2Current
$35Low
$70.53Average
$91High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Buy BuyMaintainOct 13, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainOct 8, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 6, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 5, 2026
Show 30 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $63.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$82$64.09 +29.7%Oct 13, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$90$64.92 +42.4%Oct 9, 2026
Stifel NicolausBruce Chan$90$63.62 +42.4%Oct 8, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$81$65.24 +28.2%Oct 6, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$85$66.18 +34.5%Oct 2, 2026
See 77 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) stands as a prominent provider of transportation services, specializing in truckload freight solutions for clients throughout the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Its operational scope is segmented into four key areas: Trucking, Logistics, Less-than-truckload (LTL), and Intermodal. Under its Trucking segment, the company manages a diverse portfolio of services, including irregular route, dedicated, temperature-controlled (refrigerated), flatbed, expedited, dry van, drayage, and cross-border transportation for a wide variety of goods and materials. Beyond its core trucking operations, Knight-Swift provides logistics and intermodal solutions, which include freight brokerage, intermodal services, comprehensive freight management, and various non-trucking offerings.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T03:20:41.318132+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T03:20:41.315287+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.