Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1657.2%
Neutral932.1%
Bearish310.7%
Kinross Gold Corporation · KGC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Kinross Maintains Production Outlook as Project Spending and Returns Expand
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive operating picture: production guidance was maintained through 2028, while record free cash flow and project development underpin the growth and capital-return case. That case remains conditional on cost control, permitting execution and continued supportive gold economics.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$23.88B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.67
Consensus $0.55
EPS surprise
+21.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.02B
Consensus $2.07B
Revenue surprise
-2.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-3.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-18.0%
Up to 20 sessions
KGCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KGC FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KGC fall 3.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in KGC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for KGC after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current-quarter analysis emphasizes a higher 2026 investment program and a formal 40% free-cash-flow return target, alongside project milestones for Great Bear, Lobo-Marte and U.S. developments. Cost inflation, permitting and cash timing remain material concerns.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its production outlook of 2 million ounces annually for 2026–2028. The analysis also describes 2026 capital spending of $1.5 billion and a target to return 40% of free cash flow through dividends and buybacks.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes record 2025 free cash flow and strong margin expansion.
- Management reiterated production guidance through 2028 despite cost inflation.
- The company plans substantial project investment while targeting shareholder returns of 40% of free cash flow.
- Great Bear, Lobo-Marte and three U.S. projects remain important execution and permitting milestones.
Management priorities
- Advance three U.S. projects toward construction and expected first production in 2028.
- Progress Great Bear and Lobo-Marte permitting and project milestones.
- Maintain cost discipline and return capital through dividends and buybacks.
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$20.13Previous close
$7.5Low
$25.74Average
$50High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2026 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 18, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2025 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 17, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 5, 2023 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 30, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 11, 2019 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | May 30, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 11, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 10, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 7, 2016 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | May 11, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 11, 2016 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2015 |
| Mackie Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2014 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 27, 2014 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 12, 2013 |
| Vertical Research | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 11, 2013 |
| Cormark Securities | Buy | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 14, 2013 |
| Dundee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $20.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Anita Soni | $34 | $24.34 | +68.9% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $23.18 | +39.1% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $24.86 | +148.4% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $39 | $24.27 | +93.7% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $23.94 | +103.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $23.82 | +93.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $24.71 | +88.8% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $23.26 | +49.0% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $28.74 | +83.8% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $32.26 | +168.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $33.34 | +113.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $38.86 | +123.5% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| CIBC | Anita Soni | $38.5 | $33.42 | +91.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $37.5 | $33.25 | +86.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Fahad Tariq | $33 | $27.28 | +63.9% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $28.49 | +63.9% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $23.8 | +59.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $31 | $26.9 | +54.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $24.28 | +24.2% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.02 | +34.1% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $16 | $14.5 | -20.5% | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $11.79 | -25.5% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $11 | $9.24 | -45.4% | Aug 19, 2024 |
| CIBC | Anita Soni | $12 | $8.86 | -40.4% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $4 | $4.26 | -80.1% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jackie Przybylowski | $9.75 | $4.92 | -51.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jackie Przybylowski | $10.5 | $5.63 | -47.8% | Mar 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Tyler Langton | $8 | $5.26 | -60.3% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Jalonen | $7.5 | $5.26 | -62.7% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jackie Przybylowski | $11 | $5.82 | -45.4% | Feb 18, 2022 |
| Eight Capital | Ralph M. Profiti | $9.55 | $5.78 | -52.6% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Farooq Hamed | $7.96 | $5.78 | -60.5% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ingrid Rico | $11.14 | $6.87 | -44.7% | Nov 12, 2021 |
| CIBC | Anita Soni | $6.76 | $6.26 | -66.4% | Jun 22, 2021 |
Track every rating change on KGC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationKinross Gold Corporation, along with its various affiliates, is dedicated to acquiring, exploring, and developing gold deposits primarily across regions such as the United States, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. Beyond these core operations, the company also handles the mining and processing of gold-bearing ores, conducts rehabilitation of former gold mining sites, and produces and sells silver. Kinross Gold Corporation was established in 1993 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Toronto, Canada.
Historical context
All KGC earningsBasic Materials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -1.2% | +5.0% | LyondellBasell Q3 Earnings: Strong Cash Flow, Cautious Outlook |
| VALE Vale S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -24.6% | +1.9% | Vale balances cost resilience with iron-ore and copper execution risks |
| TECK Teck Resources Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +26.4% | +1.1% | Teck posts strong Q3 as copper growth offsets merger and labor risks |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the KGC recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T08:10:44.575216+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T08:10:44.572426+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.