Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy50 ratings
Bullish3162.0%
Neutral1734.0%
Bearish24.0%
KeyCorp · KEY · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
KeyCorp pairs record revenue with major technology and capital-return plans
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: record revenue, fee-based expansion, commercial loan growth, technology investment, and planned capital returns provide support, while deposit costs, credit quality, M&A activity, and execution remain important tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$21.72B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.41
Consensus $0.39
EPS surprise
+5.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.00B
Consensus $1.96B
Revenue surprise
+2.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.4%
Event window
SPY move
-2.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.0%
Up to 20 sessions
KEYSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KEY FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KEY fall 0.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in KEY's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for KEY after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis emphasizes record 2025 revenue, a larger technology and AI investment program, a substantial 2026 repurchase plan, and continued expansion of fee-based businesses. Guidance sentiment was maintained rather than raised.
Guidance delta
Maintained: 2026 guidance calls for modest revenue growth, higher NIM, and a 9.5%-10% year-end CET1 target.
Key takeaways
- KeyCorp's 2025 revenue was described as a record, supported by net interest and fee income.
- Management plans continued investment in technology and AI while expanding fee-based businesses.
- The bank outlined substantial 2026 share repurchases and a focus on commercial loan remixing.
- The thesis is supported by fee growth, commercial lending, and operating leverage, but depends on deposits, credit, and M&A conditions.
Management priorities
- Return capital through planned share repurchases.
- Invest roughly $1 billion in technology, including AI for call centers, underwriting, and operations.
- Hire frontline bankers and expand wealth, payments, middle-market, and investment-banking businesses.
- Shift the loan mix toward higher-yield commercial lending and replace brokered CDs with client deposits.
Follow KEY with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$20.12Current
$15Low
$21.66Average
$28High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Odeon Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 22, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2022 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 7, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 11, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Mizuho | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 11, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Rafferty Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2016 |
| Rafferty | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 2, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2015 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 29, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2015 |
| iBERIA Capital Partners | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2014 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2014 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 15, 2013 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 15, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Stifel | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 28, 2013 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 23, 2013 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | Jan 9, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $20.12. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $28 | $22.8 | +39.2% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $22.95 | +24.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.95 | +14.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.42 | +34.2% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.02 | +34.2% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $23.21 | +24.3% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $23.02 | +19.3% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $27 | $21.66 | +34.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.94 | +19.3% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.67 | +19.3% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $19 | $21.01 | -5.6% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $26 | $22.51 | +29.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $23 | $21.14 | +14.3% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $25 | $21.64 | +24.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.4 | +24.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.39 | +24.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $21.37 | -10.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $20.98 | +19.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $22 | $21.04 | +9.3% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $23 | $20.06 | +14.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $21 | $16.92 | +4.4% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $16.84 | -5.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $18.45 | +14.3% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.45 | +9.3% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.88 | +9.3% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $18.89 | +19.3% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $14.87 | -15.5% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $18 | $14.12 | -10.5% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $20 | $17.35 | -0.6% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $18 | $17.25 | -10.5% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $16 | $17.4 | -20.5% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Keith Horowitz | $19 | $17.4 | -5.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $19 | $17.38 | -5.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $17 | $17.22 | -15.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $20 | $16.24 | -0.6% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Scott Siefers | $18 | $16.7 | -10.5% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Keith Horowitz | $19 | $15.94 | -5.6% | Aug 13, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $20 | $15.94 | -0.6% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stephens | Terry McEvoy | $18 | $15.77 | -10.5% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $17 | $15.46 | -15.5% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $15 | $13.95 | -25.4% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Scott Siefers | $17 | $14.39 | -15.5% | May 24, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $16 | $14.38 | -20.5% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $16 | $14.38 | -20.5% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Ken Usdin | $17 | $14.59 | -15.5% | Jan 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Keith Horowitz | $20 | $12.23 | -0.6% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $20 | $11.19 | -0.6% | Mar 24, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Matt O'Connor | $23 | $18.66 | +14.3% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $19.62 | +14.3% | May 31, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $20.5 | $19.31 | +1.9% | May 2, 2022 |
| Odeon Capital Group LLC | Richard Bove | $21.5 | $20.5 | +6.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $20.82 | +34.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Matt O'Connor | $26.5 | $25.44 | +31.7% | Feb 18, 2022 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $32 | $26.2 | +59.0% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $26 | $23.4 | +29.2% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $29 | $23.14 | +44.1% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Stephens | Terry McEvoy | $26 | $23.65 | +29.2% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| KBW | David Konrad | $21 | $19.56 | +4.4% | Jul 6, 2021 |
Track every rating change on KEY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationKeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commercial Bank. Targeting both individual consumers and small to medium-sized businesses, the corporation extends a comprehensive suite of services. These offerings include various deposit accounts, investment solutions, personal financial planning and wellness programs, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity products, general lending, credit card services, treasury management, business advisory, wealth and asset management, and trust-related services. Moreover, the company furnishes middle-market clients with a robust selection of sophisticated banking and capital market products.…
Historical context
All KEY earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the KEY recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T01:56:03.832116+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T01:56:03.829266+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.